ETFCommodities.com House Model — May 2026 Monthly Attribution Report
MTD through May 29, 2026
May Review
ETFCommodities.com’s House Model was essentially flat in May, but materially outperformed the benchmark as GSG sold off sharply. The model returned +0.01% MTD versus GSG down 7.53%, producing +7.55% of active return.
The month marked a reversal from the YTD pattern. Earlier in 2026, GSG’s futures-based commodity exposure benefited from the oil-led rally. In May, the House Model’s diversified structure helped: silver, natural gas, copper miners, gold, and base-metal miners offset weakness in crude oil exposure.
Model Performance and Attribution
| Metric / Holding | May MTD Return or Active Contribution |
| ETFCommodities.com House Model | +0.01% |
| Benchmark: GSG | -7.53% |
| Active Return | +7.55% |
| SLV | +1.74% |
| UNG | +1.63% |
| COPX | +1.02% |
| GLD | +0.88% |
| PICK | +0.84% |
| CPER | +0.46% |
| SETM | +0.43% |
| LIT | +0.25% |
| DBA | +0.24% |
| ET | +0.20% |
| PPLT | +0.16% |
| REMX | +0.12% |
| MOO | +0.12% |
| XES | +0.03% |
| XOP | 0.00% |
| PALL | -0.09% |
| USO | -0.36% |
USO was the only meaningful detractor, reflecting the sharp monthly reversal in crude-linked exposure. By contrast, UNG was a major contributor as natural gas rebounded, while SLV, COPX, PICK, GLD, and CPER all added to active performance.
By sleeve, attribution was as follows:
| Sleeve | Holdings | May Active Contribution |
| Precious Metals | GLD, SLV | +2.62% |
| Metal Miners | PICK, COPX, SETM | +2.29% |
| Oil & Gas | XOP, XES, ET, UNG, USO | +1.50% |
| Industrial Metals | REMX, PPLT, PALL, LIT, CPER | +0.90% |
| Agriculture | DBA, MOO | +0.36% |
Commodity ETF Performance and Flow Trends
According to ETFCommodities.com’s Return and Flow Database, using FactSet Research Systems Inc. data as of May 29, monthly performance was strongest in metal miners and precious metals, while flows remained mixed.
| Category | Avg. 1M Return | 1M Flows | YTD Flows | May Read-Through |
| Oil & Gas | -2.6% | +$176M | +$891M | Natural gas helped, but USO and oil equities weakened |
| Precious Metals | +2.7% | -$1.25B | -$9.17B | SLV added to attribution; GLD still saw heavy outflows |
| Industrial Metals | +1.0% | +$259M | +$775M | CPER and LIT helped; PALL remained weak |
| Metal Miners | +9.1% | +$10M | +$3.20B | Strongest return sleeve; COPX and PICK led attribution |
| Agriculture | -3.0% | -$30M | +$895M | Modest active contribution despite weaker monthly returns |
Top May Flow Winners and Losers
| Top May Flow ETFs | Category | 1M Flow | 1M Return | ||||
| XOP | Oil & Gas | +$197M | -7.7% | ||||
| REMX | Industrial Metals | +$153M | -1.4% | ||||
| DBA | Agriculture | +$143M | -3.1% | ||||
| PICK | Metal Miners | +$133M | +10.0% | ||||
| SLV | Precious Metals | +$122M | +5.4% | ||||
| LIT | Industrial Metals | +$98M | +2.4% | ||||
| Largest May Outflow ETFs | Category | 1M Flow | 1M Return | ||||
| GLD | Precious Metals | -$1.37B | -0.1% | ||||
| COPX | Metal Miners | -$184M | +13.4% | ||||
| MOO | Agriculture | -$173M | -3.0% | ||||
| UNG | Oil & Gas | -$62M | +17.5% | ||||
| PPLT | Industrial Metals | -$44M | +2.3% | ||||
| USO | Oil & Gas | -$11M | -14.3% | ||||
The flow picture remained uneven. Precious metals were the largest source of outflows, driven by GLD, despite SLV’s positive return and positive monthly inflows. Metal miners delivered the best return profile, but COPX saw outflows even as it contributed positively to model attribution.
Model Interpretation
May was a constructive relative month for the House Model. The benchmark’s oil-heavy futures exposure weakened, while the model benefited from broader participation across silver, natural gas, copper miners, industrial metals, and gold.
The YTD active gap remains in place, with the House Model up 29.97% YTD versus GSG up 37.90%, but May meaningfully narrowed the shortfall. For continued improvement, the model needs either sustained strength in metals, miners, and natural gas, or continued moderation in the oil-led futures rally that had previously favored GSG.
Bottom Line
ETFCommodities.com’s House Model was flat in May but outperformed GSG by 7.55 percentage points. SLV, UNG, COPX, GLD, and PICK drove the positive attribution, while USO was the main detractor.
The month showed the benefit of the model’s diversified commodity structure after a benchmark-friendly start to the year. GSG remains ahead YTD, but May’s attribution was a clear improvement for the House Model.
Excerpt
ETFCommodities.com’s House Model was flat in May but outperformed GSG as silver, natural gas, gold and copper miners offset crude weakness. SLV, UNG, COPX and GLD drove positive attribution, while USO was the primary detractor amid oil’s sharp monthly reversal.
Sources
- ETFCommodities.com House Model Attribution, as of May 29, 2026.
- ETFCommodities.com Return and Flow Database, as of May 29, 2026; price, return, and flow data from FactSet Research Systems Inc.
