Macro Overview
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Futures: U.S. equity futures signal a softer open; S&P 500 −0.3%, Dow −0.1%.
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Rates & Policy: Gold and silver are rebounding after last week’s pullback as markets digest President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair.
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Commodities Regulation: Margin requirements for precious‑metals futures will rise after today’s close under newly announced CME Group changes.
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Policy & Supply Chain: Reports suggest the administration is advancing a planned $12 billion strategic minerals stockpile aimed at reducing exposure to Chinese critical‑material supplies.
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Currency & Volatility: The U.S. Dollar Index (+0.2% to 97.22) is modestly firmer, while the VIX (+4.9% to 18.29) extends January’s uptick in volatility.
Metals & Mining
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Gold +1.4% to $4,811/oz, Silver +6.3% to $83.45/oz, both higher as investors rotate toward defensive assets; monthly gains are +11.1% and +17.5%, respectively.
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Copper −1.1% to $5.87/lb, Nickel −6.5% to $17,540/mt, Zinc −4.1% to $3,343.50/mt, and Aluminum −6.5% to $3,110/mt trade lower after strong January performance.
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Analysts see gold consolidating between $4,500–4,800/oz near term as higher margin calls spur volatility, while long‑term price targets remain above $6,000/oz on sustained central‑bank demand.
Corporate & Project News
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A major Canadian gold‑copper merger valued at C$3.8 billion was announced, signaling continued consolidation across the mid‑tier space. Closing is expected in 2Q 2026.
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New discoveries in Newfoundland and Labrador highlight strength in North American exploration results: grades from 2.7 to 5.8 g/t over broad intervals underscore geological potential.
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Another explorer in Ontario reported promising assays (up to 7.6 g/t Au over 9 m), supporting resource‑expansion potential at its Goldlund deposit.
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Operations in Chile’s Mantoverde mine have resumed following temporary disruptions tied to desalination plant access issues.
Energy Markets
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Crude Oil: WTI −4.9% to $62.05 (Mar); Brent −4.7% to $66.09 (Apr).
Benchmarks retreat on reports of U.S.–Iran talks and reduced geopolitical risk premium. OPEC members held output steady for March; next policy review is March 1.
U.S. production is stabilizing near 13.6 million bpd, still below 4Q25 highs as warmer weather eases Permian freeze impacts. -
Refined Products: RBOB −4.1% to $1.86 (Mar); ULSD −5.2% to $2.40 (Mar).
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Natural Gas: −17.1% to $3.61 (Mar) on milder short‑term weather forecasts and reduced heating demand. LNG feedgas flows edged down to 18.4 Bcf, while U.S. production is holding near 104.5 Bcfd.
In Europe, TTF −13.1% to €34.15/MWh, with storage at 41.6% of capacity, about 27% below the five‑year average.
Corporate & Sector Developments
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Two U.S. producers announced an all‑stock merger creating a $58 billion enterprise‑value E&P, continuing consolidation momentum.
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One integrated major was downgraded to “hold” on valuation; meanwhile, a service provider initiated chapter 11 proceedings in Texas.
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A helicopter‑transport operator secured a $196 million long‑term contract tied to North Sea offshore activity, highlighting gradual recovery in energy‑services demand.
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LNG infrastructure expansion continues, with an EPC contract signed for phase 2 construction at a Gulf‑Coast project.
Economic Calendar
Monday (2 Feb): UK House Price Index (y/y), Germany Retail Sales (y/y), U.S. PMI Manufacturing (9:45 ET), U.S. ISM Manufacturing (10:00 ET)
Tuesday (3 Feb): U.S. JOLTS (10:00 ET)
Wednesday (4 Feb): Eurozone Flash CPI, Eurozone PPI, U.S. ADP Employment (8:15 ET), U.S. PMI Services (9:45 ET), ISM Non‑Manufacturing (10:00 ET)
