Commodity markets opened the week cautiously as investors balanced ongoing geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and shifting global supply dynamics. U.S. equity futures traded slightly lower in pre-market activity, while gold prices held relatively steady as markets continued to assess the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Industrial metals were weaker overall, with copper, aluminum, nickel, and zinc all declining amid softer demand signals from China. China’s crude steel production fell 4.1% year-over-year through the first four months of 2026, reinforcing concerns about slowing industrial activity. At the same time, UBS lowered its 2026 global aluminum supply forecast due to disruptions in the Middle East, supporting expectations for elevated premiums in the aluminum market.
In the precious metals sector, Skeena Resources reported continued construction progress at its Eskay Creek project and reiterated expectations for initial production in 2027, while Coeur Mining updated investors on its ongoing $750 million share repurchase program, with approximately $69.7 million already completed. Gold mining equities were modestly stronger to begin the session, reflecting continued investor interest in defensive assets amid market uncertainty.
Energy markets remained firmly focused on escalating geopolitical tensions and tightening supply expectations. Oil prices extended last week’s gains, with WTI crude trading above $105 per barrel and Brent near $110, as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran showed little progress and tensions in the Gulf region intensified following reported attacks near critical infrastructure. Additional support came from comments by the International Energy Agency warning that commercial oil inventories are being depleted rapidly. However, weaker Chinese refinery utilization and softer fuel demand tempered some of the bullish sentiment. Natural gas prices also moved higher as forecasts called for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States later this month, increasing expectations for stronger cooling demand.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor several key economic releases this week, including U.S. housing data, UK inflation figures, Eurozone CPI data, and the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Markets are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, inflation trends, and indications of global demand strength, particularly from China and the energy sector.
Metals & Mining
Gold traded essentially flat to start the week as markets continue to evaluate inflation risks and the timing of future interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, UBS reduced its 2026 global aluminum supply forecast due to Middle East disruptions, reinforcing expectations for elevated aluminum premiums moving forward.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported crude steel production declined 4.1% year-over-year during the January–April period, reflecting ongoing weakness in industrial demand and output moderation. Separately, Reuters highlighted that U.S. drill bit manufacturers are increasingly shifting toward steel-based products as tungsten prices continue to surge amid tighter global supplies and trade restrictions.
Key Metals Performance
- Gold: +0.02% to $4,564.5/oz
- Silver: -0.29% to $77.32/oz
- Copper: -0.37% to $6.272/lb
- Aluminum: -3.53% to $3,635/mt
- Nickel: -2.78% to $18,390/mt
- Zinc: -1.92% to $3,527/mt
Gold miner ETFs also traded modestly higher:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX): +0.60%
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ): +0.56%
Precious Metals Corporate Updates
Skeena Resources reported a Q1 2026 net loss of $0.86/share as construction progresses at its Eskay Creek project. Mechanical equipment installation has commenced, with first production targeted for 2027.
Coeur Mining also updated investors on its expanded $750 million share repurchase program, confirming approximately $69.7 million of stock has been repurchased so far, leaving roughly $680 million remaining under authorization.
Energy Markets
Oil prices extended last week’s strong gains as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to intensify and U.S.–Iran negotiations showed little progress. WTI crude rose 0.4% to $105.86 while Brent climbed 0.7% to $110.00.
Tensions escalated over the weekend following reports of attacks near a UAE nuclear facility and Saudi interception of drones originating from Iraqi airspace. Markets also reacted to warnings from IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who stated commercial oil inventories are being depleted rapidly.
At the same time, China’s refinery throughput fell to its lowest level since August 2022, with refinery utilization declining both month-over-month and year-over-year, reflecting softer domestic fuel demand and rising inventories.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices jumped 2.4% to $3.031 as updated weather forecasts called for above-normal temperatures across most of the continental U.S. through late May, boosting expectations for cooling demand. European gas storage remains significantly below historical averages at 36.1% capacity.
Energy Sector Highlights
- BP was upgraded to “Buy” by Gerdes Energy Research with a $54 target price.
- Phillips 66 is proceeding with the Zeus Gas Plant and a third Coastal Bend Fractionator project.
- Transocean attracted attention after Elliott disclosed a 15.6 million-share position.
Macro & Market Outlook
Investors will monitor several important economic releases this week, including:
- U.S. Pending Home Sales
- UK CPI and labor data
- Eurozone inflation figures
- FOMC Minutes on Wednesday afternoon
Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to:
- Geopolitical developments in the Middle East
- Inflation and central bank policy expectations
- Chinese industrial demand trends
- Energy inventory data and summer demand forecasts
With volatility remaining elevated across both metals and energy markets, traders are likely to remain defensive and highly reactive to macro headlines throughout the week.
