Daily Trading Update

Commodity Market Recap – April 13, 2026

Commodity markets are starting the week on a volatile note, with geopolitical tensions once again driving price action across both energy and metals. Equity futures are pointing lower, while a sharp escalation in Middle East risks—particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—has created a divergence between surging energy prices and softer, precious metals. Investors are balancing supply disruption fears with broader macro uncertainty, including a stronger U.S. dollar and rising market volatility.

Oil & Gas

Energy markets are sharply higher to begin the week, as crude prices spike in response to the U.S. announcing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed negotiations with Iran. This key shipping chokepoint is critical for global oil flows, and any disruption is expected to significantly tighten supply. Despite the severity of the situation, markets appear to be pricing in some degree of temporary disruption rather than a prolonged conflict.

Energy Pricing Snapshot

Crude oil’s rally reflects growing concerns that Iranian exports—currently around 2 million barrels per day—could be disrupted. Tanker activity in the region has already been impacted, with some vessels avoiding the Strait entirely. Meanwhile, Saudi exports to China are expected to decline, and Kuwait has raised official selling prices across all regions, signaling tighter global supply.

Natural gas is also moving higher, supported by warmer weather forecasts across the eastern U.S. and tightening global supply. European gas prices have surged as storage levels remain below seasonal norms, adding to upward pressure internationally.

From a broader perspective, last week’s energy selloff has quickly reversed, underscoring how sensitive the sector remains to geopolitical developments. Investors should expect continued volatility as markets react to both real supply disruptions and headline risk.

Metals & Mining

Metals markets are more mixed, with precious metals under pressure while industrial metals—particularly aluminum—are benefiting from supply-side disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions.

Metals Pricing Snapshot

Gold and silver are trading lower despite heightened geopolitical tensions, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising volatility appear to be weighing on investor demand in the near term. However, both metals remain solidly positive year-to-date.

In contrast, aluminum has surged to a four-year high following reports of supply disruptions tied to an Iranian attack impacting production facilities. Additionally, China’s move to raise rare earth prices by roughly 45% quarter-over-quarter highlights tightening supply conditions across key industrial inputs.

Mining equities are also under pressure in pre-market trading, reflecting the broader risk-off tone in equities. However, year-to-date performance remains strong, particularly among gold miners.

On the corporate front, updates across the sector show continued operational momentum. Production growth, strong drilling results, and favorable feasibility studies—especially in gold projects—underscore longer-term optimism despite short-term price volatility.

Closing Thoughts

Markets are beginning the week with a clear divergence: energy prices are surging on geopolitical risk, while metals are showing a more nuanced response, balancing supply concerns with macro headwinds. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains the key catalyst to watch, as any sustained disruption could have significant ripple effects across global commodities.

For investors, this environment reinforces the importance of diversification within commodities, as different segments respond uniquely to the same macro events. Expect elevated volatility in the days ahead as markets digest geopolitical developments alongside a busy slate of economic data and central bank commentary.