Metals & Mining and Energy Market Recap
March 12, 2026
Metals & Mining Pre-Market
U.S. equity futures pointed modestly lower ahead of the open, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow down 0.4% in early trading following the previous day’s weaker close. In the metals complex, gold prices edged slightly higher as investors continued to focus on inflation risks, U.S. dollar movements, and geopolitical uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Several analysts are becoming more constructive on precious and base metals. RBC Capital Markets raised its gold price forecasts significantly, projecting $5,723/oz for 2026 and $6,500/oz for 2027, while lifting its long-term outlook to $4,000/oz. The firm believes ongoing geopolitical tensions could sustain elevated demand for safe-haven assets. RBC also increased its copper outlook to $5.88/lb for 2026, citing continued strength early in the year before potential supply normalization later in 2026 as disruptions at key mines begin to ease.
Equity research activity also reflected improving sentiment across the mining sector. Analysts upgraded several companies, including SSR Mining, Kinross Gold, and First Quantum Minerals, with higher price targets reflecting stronger metal prices and improving fundamentals. In early trading, shares of Newmont were slightly higher, Freeport-McMoRan traded lower, while Barrick was little changed.
Metals & Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Daily | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,184.60/oz | +0.1% | +4.8% | +19.4% |
| Silver | $87.25/oz | +2.0% | +15.3% | +23.5% |
| Copper | $5.89/lb | -0.1% | +1.7% | +3.6% |
| Nickel | $17,694/mt | -0.1% | -1.4% | +4.5% |
| Zinc | $3,312.30/mt | +0.1% | -3.8% | +6.7% |
| Aluminum | $3,485.30/mt | +1.1% | +11.2% | +16.8% |
Precious Metals
Corporate updates across the precious metals space highlighted both operational performance and long-term development plans.
McEwen Mining reported fourth-quarter results showing sales of 15,196 gold-equivalent ounces at an average realized price of $4,436 per ounce. Production totaled 34,341 gold-equivalent ounces, representing a 6% year-over-year increase. Looking ahead, the company expects 2026 production of 114,000–126,000 GEOs and is targeting long-term growth to 250,000–300,000 GEOs annually by 2030.
Sitka Gold announced plans to spin out its Nevada and Arizona assets into a separate entity, allowing management to focus on advancing its flagship RC Gold Project in the Yukon while unlocking value from other exploration properties.
Exploration activity also remained strong. U.S. Silver reported several new high-grade silver-copper-antimony veins at its Galena Complex in Idaho and plans to launch the largest drilling campaign in the company’s history in 2026 with roughly 64,000 meters of drilling.
Other project developments included Amex Exploration beginning environmental work tied to future permitting and Aya Gold & Silver launching a feasibility-level study for its Boumadine project in Morocco, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2027.
Base Metals
In base metals, First Quantum Minerals announced an agreement to sell the Çayeli copper-zinc mine in Turkey to Cengiz Holding for $340 million in cash. The mine has been operating since 1994 and is expected to continue production until approximately 2036. The transaction is expected to close later in 2026.
Separately, the Iron Ore Company of Canada reported fourth-quarter production results that showed weaker output, with concentrate production down 22% year-over-year. However, Rio Tinto expects saleable production to remain within a range of 15–18 million tonnes in 2026, broadly in line with the 15.9 million tonnes produced in 2025.
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas Pricing
| Commodity | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (Apr) | $92.25 | +5.8% |
| Brent Crude (May) | $97.72 | +6.2% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $3.185 | -0.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline | $2.887 | +3.5% |
| ULSD Diesel | $3.867 | +5.2% |
Oil prices extended sharp gains following a volatile session driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Overnight trading saw crude prices surge as much as 10% as Iranian attacks targeted tankers and energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, forcing operational suspensions at key export terminals and disrupting shipping routes.
Multiple incidents were reported, including attacks on tankers near Iraq, a vessel struck off the UAE coast, and drone activity targeting Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field. These disruptions have heightened concerns about global supply stability. Additional market pressure emerged after China reportedly banned refined fuel exports for the month due to potential domestic shortages, while South Korea introduced fuel price caps.
The International Energy Agency also reduced its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 to 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.4 million previously, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and potential infrastructure disruptions. At the same time, demand growth expectations were trimmed slightly to 640,000 barrels per day.
Governments are attempting to stabilize markets through coordinated strategic petroleum reserve releases. The United States plans to contribute 172 million barrels as part of a broader 400-million-barrel international release, although many market participants view the measure as a temporary buffer rather than a long-term solution if geopolitical tensions persist.
Natural gas prices traded modestly lower ahead of the weekly U.S. storage report. Analysts expect a draw of 42 Bcf for the week ending March 6, compared with a five-year average draw of 64 Bcf.
Commodities
Oil markets rallied sharply as escalating tensions in the Middle East threatened key shipping lanes and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. Several vessels were reportedly struck by drones or missiles, while attacks targeted oil facilities in Oman and Saudi Arabia. Although the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, markets viewed the move as having limited long-term impact if disruptions continue.
In the U.S., weekly government data showed crude inventories increased by 3.82 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined by 3.65 million and 1.35 million barrels respectively. Demand indicators were strong, with gasoline consumption rising by nearly 950,000 barrels per day and distillate demand increasing by over 360,000 barrels per day.
Energy equities outperformed the broader market, with the S&P 500 Energy sector gaining 2.48% compared with a slight decline for the broader index. Refining companies led the sector higher as tighter product inventories boosted margins.
