Energy
Oil & Gas – Pricing (Pre-Market March 4)
Oil prices remain highly volatile as markets react to escalating Middle East conflict and supply disruptions. After an 11% two-day surge earlier in the week—the largest in four years—crude prices stabilized modestly in pre-market trading. Roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of Iraqi production is currently offline, with potential for further outages. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced, pushing shipping costs to record highs. President Donald Trump stated the U.S. Navy would escort tankers if needed and provide political risk insurance to stabilize maritime trade. Meanwhile, diesel (ULSD) continues to outperform due to regional supply disruptions and low inventory levels.
| Commodity | Price | Change |
| WTI (Apr) | $74.35 | -0.2% |
| Brent (Mar) | $81.50 | +0.2% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $3.010 | -1.3% |
| RBOB (Apr) | $2.466 | +0.3% |
| ULSD (Apr) | $3.156 | -1.0% |
Natural gas has also been active. U.S. prices rose 3.1% Tuesday, while Europe’s TTF benchmark surged more than 20% as Qatar LNG supply remains offline. Analysts note a prolonged Strait disruption could push U.S. gas above $4.00/MMBtu. Storage data and weather forecasts will be key near-term drivers.
Energy stocks were mixed. Refiners outperformed as tighter diesel supplies boosted margins, while oilfield services lagged despite strong commodity pricing. Stock-specific moves were driven largely by earnings reports, capital raises, and buyback announcements.
Key events ahead include the DOE petroleum report, EIA natural gas storage data, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, and the IEA Oil Market Report—all of which could influence near-term volatility.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets have been volatile amid currency strength and geopolitical tensions. Gold and silver sold off sharply Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and inflation concerns resurfaced, though prices rebounded in early Wednesday trading. Longer term, both metals remain strongly positive year-to-date, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand.
Industrial metals were mixed. Copper softened on growth concerns and weaker Chinese lithium pricing, while aluminum remained firm as analysts assess potential supply tightness if shipping disruptions persist. Coal prices surged after an unprecedented outage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex raised expectations of fuel switching in global power markets.
Metals Snapshot – Pre-Market March 4
| Commodity | Price | Daily | Monthly | YTD |
| Gold | $5,169.40/oz | +0.9% | +4.4% | +19.1% |
| Silver | $85.18/oz | +2.1% | +0.9% | +20.7% |
| Copper | $5.90/lb | +1.2% | +0.8% | +3.8% |
| Nickel | $17,000/mt | -1.9% | -1.3% | +3.1% |
| Zinc | $3,287/mt | -2.0% | -1.4% | +7.3% |
| Aluminum | $3,269/mt | +1.3% | +7.3% | +10.1% |
| GDX | $108.25 | +2.9% | +6.6% | +22.7% |
| GDXJ | $145.66 | +3.1% | +8.3% | +24.1% |
| DXY | $98.85 | -0.2% | +1.3% | +0.5% |
| VIX | $23.44 | -0.5% | +26.4% | +57.7% |
Bottom Line
Energy and metals markets are being driven primarily by geopolitical risk and supply disruptions rather than traditional demand fundamentals. While commodity prices have surged, equity performance has been more selective. Expect continued volatility in the near term as markets digest inventory data, central bank commentary, and developments in the Middle East.
