Metals & Mining
Synopsis
Equity markets continued to grind higher midweek, with the S&P 500 finishing up +0.8% and the Dow +0.6% on February 25, while futures point to a relatively flat open (+0.0% S&P, +0.1% Dow) on February 26. Metals markets remain highly sensitive to rate-cut expectations, tariff headlines, and ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Global steel demand signals remain soft, as the World Steel Association reported January crude steel production down (6.5%) year-over-year, led by a (13.9%) decline in China. Meanwhile, supply-side developments are supporting certain critical minerals. Zimbabwe’s suspension of raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has tightened lithium markets, and reports of rare earth shortages (including yttrium and scandium) are adding pressure to aerospace and semiconductor supply chains.
Large banks remain constructive on key commodities. Citi reiterated a bullish near-term copper view, targeting $14,000/tonne within three months, while JP Morgan raised its long-term gold forecast, citing strong central bank and investor demand.
Pre-market moves (Feb 26): B (0.4%), NEM (0.5%), FCX (1.2%).
February 26 – Pre-Market
| Commodity / Index | Price | Daily | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,197.10/oz | (0.5%) | +2.3% | +19.7% |
| Silver | $86.67/oz | (4.7%) | (24.9%) | +22.8% |
| Copper | $6.03/lb | (0.2%) | +0.2% | +6.1% |
| Nickel | $17,750/mt | +0.9% | (4.2%) | +7.7% |
| Zinc | $3,352/mt | +0.0% | +0.7% | +9.4% |
| Aluminum | $3,107/mt | +1.0% | (2.7%) | +4.7% |
| GDX | $110.89 | (0.2%) | +3.4% | +29.6% |
| GDXJ | $147.58 | (0.2%) | +2.5% | +29.9% |
| DXY | $97.70 | +0.0% | +0.7% | (0.6%) |
| VIX | $17.78 | (0.8%) | +11.0% | +19.9% |
Precious Metals
The precious metals complex remains well bid year-to-date despite recent volatility. Gold continues to benefit from central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations for eventual monetary easing. Several junior miners reported encouraging drill results and resource updates, reinforcing the strong performance in both senior and junior gold miner ETFs, which are up nearly 30% year-to-date.
Base Metals
Copper sentiment remains constructive as analysts point to tightening supply and structural demand from electrification and energy transition themes. Production constraints in Chinese steel and policy-driven export suspensions (notably lithium) are adding to broader resource nationalism concerns. Meanwhile, uranium project updates and investment decisions signal continued capital deployment into nuclear fuel supply chains.
On Deck
Investors are focused on upcoming macro data, including U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, PPI, Chicago PMI, and ISM Manufacturing. European CPI and retail sales will also be monitored for global demand signals.
Energy
Oil & Gas
Oil prices pulled back sharply in pre-market trading (Feb 26) after Wednesday’s volatile session. Crude markets are digesting a large U.S. inventory build, reports of rising Saudi production, and headlines surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions. OPEC-8 is expected to consider modest output increases at its upcoming meeting.
Natural gas prices are also under pressure as weather forecasts turned warmer and storage draws remain below historical averages.
February 26 – Pre-Market
| Commodity | Price | Daily |
|---|---|---|
| WTI (Apr) | $63.88 | (2.3%) |
| Brent (Apr) | $69.48 | (2.0%) |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $2.793 | (2.6%) |
| RBOB (Mar) | $1.968 | (1.2%) |
| ULSD (Mar) | $2.621 | (2.0%) |
E&P
Earnings across the exploration & production space were mixed, with several companies beating on EBITDA but offering cautious 2026 production guidance. Capital discipline remains a consistent theme, with dividend increases and share buybacks offsetting selective production softness.
Services
Oilfield service companies reported generally in-line to modestly better results, though some guidance came in slightly below expectations. Investors remain focused on capital spending trends and offshore activity levels heading into 2026.
Pipelines / MLPs
Midstream earnings were largely steady, supported by strong distributable cash flow. However, selective 2026 EBITDA and capex guidance missed expectations for some operators.
DOE Inventory Update
The headline driver this week was a +15.99M barrel crude build — the largest in over three years — reflecting higher imports and lower refinery utilization (88.6%). Gasoline inventories fell modestly, while distillates edged higher. The build follows a large draw the prior week, contributing to heightened short-term volatility in crude prices.
