Daily Trading Update

Metals & Mining Pre Market

• Synopsis:
  • Daily update: Following last week’s lower close, futures signal a lower start again this morning with the S&P (0.1%) and the Dow (0.0%) thus far in the pre-market.
  • Gold and silver are trading at fresh record highs today largely driven by multiple factors including escalating geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, and tariff uncertainties. Note that gold surpassed the $5,000/ounce level for the first time ever, while silver prices briefly crossed the $110/ounce level for the first time ever.
  • Analysts expect spot gold prices to climb further toward the $6,000/ounce level this year citing geopolitical tensions and strong retail & central bank demand, as per Reuters.
  • UBS recommends caution on copper prices in the near term citing highly speculative positioning and soft macro data in China. Elsewhere, weak demand trends in China were also discussed amid high copper prices. The bank maintains its long-term outlook for the metal, with a price target of $14,000/metric ton for 2026.
  • On the corporate front, Allied Gold Corporation AAUC has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Zijin Gold International Company Limited in a transaction valued at C$5.5B.
  • Pre-Market: NEM +4.4%, FCX +4.1%, B +3.5%
• Metals Snapshot:
  • Gold +2.0% to $5,078.50/oz, Monthly +11.6%, YTD +17.1%
  • Silver +8.5% to $109.94/oz, Monthly +42.4%, YTD +55.7%
  • Copper +0.8% to $5.99/lb, Monthly +2.7%, YTD +5.6%
  • Nickel +5.3% to $18,630/mt, Monthly +20.7%, YTD +13%
  • Zinc +2.2% to $3,221/mt, Monthly +5.3%, YTD +5.1%
  • Aluminum +2.6% to $3,175/mt, Monthly +8.3%, YTD +7.0%
  • GDX +3.9% to $111.23, Monthly +17.2%, YTD +24.8%
  • GDXJ +4.2% to $151.20, Monthly +19.3%, YTD +27.5%
  • DXY (0.4%) to $97.22, Monthly (0.8%), YTD (1.1%)
  • VIX +4.3% to $16.78, Monthly +18.3%, YTD +7.6%
• Precious Metals:
  • AAUC announce that it has entered into a definitive agreement, pursuant to which Zijin Gold International Company Limited has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Allied Gold at a price of C$44 per share in cash. The equity value pursuant to the transaction is approximately C$5.5B based on Allied Gold’s common shares outstanding. The offer Price represents a premium of approximately 27% over Allied Gold’s 30-day vwap. Transaction close is expected by late April 2026.
  • KNT.CN provided FY/2026 outlook in which production is expected to be a record between 190,000-225,000 AuEq ounces at an AISC of $1,250-$1,350 per ounce. A record $31M-$35m is expected to be deployed during the year for exploration while growth capital is expected between $100M-$108M.
  • FNV announced that its BOD has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.44 per share payable on March 26, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 12, 2026. This increased quarterly dividend is intended to be applied to all four quarters for the FY/2026 fiscal year. This is an approximate 16% increase from the previous $0.38 per share quarterly dividend and marks the 19th consecutive annual increase for Franco-Nevada shareholders.
  • ASM reported results of six drill holes from La Preciosa (Mexico), completing the company’s 2025 program. Highlight intercepts included PMLP 25-12 which returned 585 g/t Ag and 0.65 g/t Au over 4.90m and PMLP 25-14 at Gloria which returned 694 g/t Ag and 0.63 g/t Au over 4.52m. The La Preciosa deposit is situated on the eastern flank of the Cretaceous to mid-Tertiary Sierra Madre Occidental.
  • GOLD.CN reported additional assay results from its FY/2025 drilling program at its wholly-owned Sao Jorge Project in the Tapajos gold district located in Para State, Brazil. Highlights included 19m at 1.0 g/t Au from 425m at Sao Jorge along with 3m at 1.10 g/t Au from 10m. The 2025 Sao Jorge exploration program comprised a total of 9,533m of drilling.
  • HL announced its preliminary metals production results for FY/2025. The company produced 17.0M ounces of silver (+5% y/y), 150,509 ounces of gold (+6% y/y), 56,130 tons of lead (+7% y/y) and 68,558 tons of zinc (+3% y/y) during the year. Regarding the FY/2026 guidance, silver production is expected between 15.1M-16.5M ounces and gold production is expected between 134,000-146,000 ounces.
  • MKO.CN reported the results of an updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Moss mine gold project, located in Arizona, USA. The Measured & Indicated open pit mineral resources are estimated at 57.07Mt averaging 0.35 g/t Au and 3.7 g/t Ag for a total of 646,000 ounces of gold and 6.8M ounces of silver. Elsewhere, the Inferred open pit mineral resources are estimated at 12.3Mt averaging 0.31 g/t Au and 1.46 g/t Ag for a total of 122,000 ounces of gold and 580,000 ounces of silver.
  • GORO announce that it has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement and plan of merger with Goldgroup Mining Inc. GGA.CN whereby Goldgroup has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock. The exchange ratio represents a value of $2.25 per share of the Company’s common stock, reflecting a 39% premium to the Company’s closing price on January 23, 2026.
• Base Metals:
  • STLD reported Q4/2025 results which were highlighted by operating income of $322M which was sequentially, 35% lower due largely to lower pricing (averaging $1,107 per ton) and lower volumes as part of lower seasonal demand and planned maintenance. That said, management stated that steel pricing have since improved while customer optimism remains solid across our businesses, as demand continues to be steady.
  • MARI.CN announced results from the Phase II drilling campaign at the Pampa Medina deposit, located within the Atacama Desert. Drilling intersected significant extensions to the Pampa Medina oxide footprint in a new zone to the north-east. Highlights include 0.61% Cu over 162m and 0.51% Cu over 116m.
• On Deck:
  • Monday 26th

Economic: US Core Durable Orders (08:30), US Durable Orders ex transport (08:30), US Durable Orders (08:30)

• • Tuesday 27th

Economic: US Consumer Confidence (10:00)

• • Wednesday 28th

Central Banks/Politics/Finance: FOMC Meeting (14:00)

January 26, Energy Pre-Market:

Energy Pre-Market

• Oil & Gas:
  • Pricing
    • WTI (0.2%) to $60.95 (Mar)
    • Brent (0.1%) to $65.01 (Mar)
    • Natural gas +10.5% to $5.829 (Feb)
    • RBOB (0.8%) to $1.835 (Feb)
    • ULSD +3.8% to $2.521 (Feb)
  • Oil: Crude benchmarks start the week off fractionally lower, incorporating winter storm Fern, Iranian protests, and a weaker Dollar which is currently down (0.33%) to 97.08 after a (1.62%) decline last week. ULSD is outperforming as single-digit temperatures settle in across a good portion of the L48 while JPMorgan today said 250K bpd of crude production has been lost due to harsh weather. Roughly 100K bpd of production in North Dakota was offline over the weekend according to state officials. While a few refineries (Exxon’s Baytown) in the USGC shut small portions of their operations, those were precautionary measures. Time over the weekend reported over 36,000 Iranians were killed in a two-day (Jan 8-9) crackdown against anti-regime protesters. Trump on Friday said he was sending an armada towards Iran but hoped he didn’t need to use it. On Sunday the Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it completed scheduled maintenance on export terminal mooring #3. Mooring #2 remains offline due to a Ukrainian drone attack last year. Production at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has begun gradually increasing production after power losses last week due to fires. Three delegate sources of Reuters said they expect OPEC-8 to maintain its current plan to pause production quota increases from March when they meet virtually this coming weekend. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated the potential removal of additional 25% tariffs on India following a sharp reduction in Indian purchases of Russian oil. Ukraine today announced it destroyed infrastructure of the Russian oil refinery Slavyansk Eco. The U.S. frac spread count week-ended 23-January according to Primary Vision Network rose +3 w/w to 163 which compares to 183 the same time last year. It was the third straight weekly increase, up a combined 10 over that span.
  • Natural gas: The February contract, expiring Wednesday, is up +10.5% to $5.829 while March trades up +4.3% to $3.762 as demand spikes while production over the weekend dropped below 98 Bcf. HH in early trading topped $6.00 for the first time since 2022. The NOAA 6-10 day Sunday afternoon had TX, several Midwest states and everywhere east of the Mississippi experiencing below-normal temperatures with the highest probability for those from MD, down through FL, GA, and AL. The west is seen above-normal. The 8-14 day has everywhere east of the Mississippi as well as LA and AR below-normal while the west is seen above-normal. The probability for below-normal temps in the east is lower compared to the 6-10 day. LNG feedgas flows dropped more than (2.0) Bcfd over the weekend to around 15.05 on Sunday after a steep drop at Freeport and a 500 MMcfd decline at Corpus Christi. Production over the weekend fell below 98 Bcfd as freeze-offs widen around the L48 including the Permian that had a (2.3) Bcf decline Friday night into Saturday. TTF is up +0.30% to 40.16 euros per MWh.
    • PJM pushes utilities to secure gas: The largest U.S. grid operator, PJM Interconnection LLC is pushing power plants to secure natural gas supplies through the week amid expectations that frigid temperatures will drive electricity usage to a winter record.
• E&P:
  • XOM XTO Energy seeking to sell some Eagle Ford assets. Reuters sources say that without hiring any bankers to do the marketing, Exxon has opened a virtual data room for the assets, which expand over 168K net acres and are valued at more than $1B; an Exxon spokesperson confirms that XTO is looking to sell the Texas shale-basin assets.
  • COP and Total signed a 25-year oil development agreement with Libya involving more than $20B in foreign-financed investment according to that nations PM. Reuters.
  • OVV – NUVISTA and OVINTIV announce NUVISTA shareholder approval and receipt of final order for transaction with OVINTIV.
• Services:
  • BKR Q4 adjusted EPS $0.78 vs FactSet $0.67, revenue $7.39B vs guidance $6.65-7.45B and FactSet $7.07B, adj EBITDA $1.34B vs guidance $1.145-1.365B and FactSet $1.26B. FCF $1.34B vs FS $711M. The beat was led by IET which posited >4B in orders to new record levels.
• Refiners:
  • CVI reports preliminary Q4 EBITDA $78M-102M vs FactSet $96.5M, throughputs 210K to 220K bpd, and net income ($120M)-(105M) attributable
• On Deck:
  • Monday 26-January
    • SPR stockpile update
  • Tuesday 27-January
    • API stockpile data 16:30 ET
  • Wednesday 28-January
    • DOE WPSR 10:30 ET
    • EIA Electric Power Monthly
    • HH February contract expires
    • Earnings post-market LBRT, MUR
  • Thursday 29-January
    • EIA weekly nat gas storage data 10:30 ET
    • Earnings pre-market CNX, VLO
  • Friday 30-January
    • Baker Hughes weekly rig count 13:00 ET
    • EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly
    • EIA Natural Gas Monthly
    • Brent March, RBOB Feb, and ULSD Feb contracts all expire.
    • Earnings pre-market CVX, XOM
    • Brent March, RBOB Feb, and ULSD Feb contracts expire
  • Sunday 1-February
    • OPEC-8 meeting to review market conditions

January 23, 2026 Energy Weekly Recap:

• Week in Review:
  • Commodities/Dollar Index
    • WTI +2.8% to $61.02 (Mar)
    • Brent +2.7% to $65.85(Mar)
    • Natural gas +72.5% to $5.36 (Feb)
    • RBOB +3.9% to $1.85 (Feb)
    • ULSD +9.0% to 2.44(Feb)
    • Dollar Index (1.62%) to 97.60
• Oil
  • Trading/Recap:
    • Today: WTI +2.9% Brent +2.8%, RBOB +2.1%, ULSD +3.1%. Dollar Index (0.59%).
    • It was another week of price action driven primarily by geopolitics. Weakness Thursday came after Trump stated the administration was close to a deal with NATO on missile systems in Greenland after threatening potential military action and tariffs on Europe without a deal getting done. Strength today coming as Ukraine/Russia peace talks remain at an impasse (territory remains key hurdle), Trump stating an armada was heading to Iran, and news this morning that D.C. has threatened sanctions against Iraq’s oil revenue should Iran-backed armed groups be included in that country’s next government. Ongoing frigid temperatures are already curtailing production in the Bakken while Permian output is expected to be hit this weekend. Pipelines and compressors could also be impacted by pending cold. ULSD outperformance has been driven by those wintry forecasts.
    • Production at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz remains offline following a power outage caused by fires back on Monday (could be offline through next week) while reports indicate scheduled maintenance on CPC terminals mooring #3 could be completed at any time.
    • The DOE posted a bearish Weekly Petroleum Status Report with crude, gasoline, and distillate stockpiles all building by +3.6M, +5.98M, and +3.35M respectively. Gasoline stockpiles have now built 10 consecutive weeks, up +51.96M over that span to their highest level since Feb-2021.
    • The IEA MOMR raised its 2026 global oil demand growth estimate by +70K bpd m/m to +930K bpd, offset by a +100K bpd increase of its 2026 world supply growth estimate to +2.5M bpd. For all of 2026, the market surplus is expected to average 3.69M bpd, down slightly from the 3.84M bpd estimate in December.
    • Other: Lots of headlines regarding Venezuela, but in the grand scheme, a potential 200K to 300K bpd production 6+ months out is a relative non-event. China 2025 refinery throughputs rose +4.1% y/y to a record 14.75M bpd while China crude production rose +1.5% y/y. China December throughputs averaged 14.7M bpd. While India sources more barrels outside of Russia, China seaborne imports from that nation track towards nearly 1.5M bpd this month, up from 1.1M bpd in December according to LSEG data.
• Natural Gas
  • Trading/Recap:
    • HH is up +6.1% today and up +72.5% on the week. The March contract which takes over as the front-month on Thursday is up +33.3% to $3.60. It was a record setting move for natural gas, driven by forecasts over the weekend expecting extremely cold temperatures for most of the L48 this week through next. Freeze-offs, starting in North Dakota, have taken dry gas production down roughly (4.5) Bcfd since Tuesday. Production shut-ins are expected to accelerate this weekend as freezing temperatures and ice move into the Permian and Haynesville. Sub-zero temps push into the Appalachian basin this weekend and could hang around through Friday. Weekly storage data was bearish compared to the 5-year average at (120) Bcf but the next three updates could pull a combined (825) Bcf based on the lower-end of preliminary estimates. The update we got yesterday was the 10th of the season with 10 to go.
    • Production: Dry gas production today tracks towards 103.5 Bcfd, down (2.0) Bcf d/d and down (4.5) Bcfd since Tuesday morning on the above-noted freeze-offs.
    • LNG: LNG feedgas flows over the last week peaked at/around 19.15 Bcfd on Thursday as well as Saturday and bottomed on Wednesday at 18.43 Bcfd.
    • Storage: The EIA for week-ended 16-January reported a storage draw of (120) Bcf vs consensus (106) Bcf and the 5-year average of (191) Bcf. Working gas fell to 3.065 Tcf, 177 Bcf or +6.1% above the 5-year average vs 106 Bcf of +3.4% above the week-prior. Draws season-to-date stand at 895 vs the 5-year of 900.
    • International: TTF closed up +7.9% on the week 39.33 euros per MWh or around $11.52 /mmbtu. That follows up a +28.9% move higher last week. European storage as of 21-January was at 47.6% of capacity, (22.8%) below the 5-year. Spot LNG prices for March delivery into Northeast Asia averaged $11.35/mmbtu this past week, up +12.4% from $10.10 the week-prior. That’s the highest weekly average in over two months on colder forecasts for Asia and Europe.
  • Storage to come/preliminary estimates:
    • Week-ending today (220) to (235) Bcf vs the 5-year average of (208) Bcf.
    • Week-ending 30-January,a potential record (360) to (380) Bcf vs the 5-year average of (190) Bcf.
    • Week-ending 6-February (245) to (260) Bcf vs the 5-year average of (146) Bcf.
    • The three largest draw on record, (359) Bcf week-ended Jan 5-2018, (338) Bcf 19-Feb-2021, (326) Bcf 19-Jan-2024.
• Stocks
  • The S&P 500 Energy Index +3.30% vs the S&P 500 (0.43%). The XLE +3.33%, hitting intraday its best levels since 2014. The XOP +3.88% with the vast majority of oil E&P’s and all gas operators higher on the week, the latter outperforming. CRK +15.3% and EQT +10.2% leading the pack. U.S. integrated-majors are all unchanged or higher, led by XOM +4.0%. The OSX +4.91% to its best levels since August-2024. The OIH +5.02%, hitting its best levels this morning since April-2024. Service subgroups are all firmly higher, offshore drillers, pressure pumpers and large diversified names outperformers, the latter incorporating solid HAL +5.7% and SLB +5.3% quarterly reports. The S&P 1500 Refining & Marketing Index +2.20%, PBF +!3.5%, CVI +6.3%, and PSX +3.1% outperforming. The Alerian MLP ETF +0.29%.
    • SLB +5.3% reported Q4 results with initial market sentiment overall neutral-to-positive on the update. Positives highlighted include above-consensus plans to return over $4B to holders in 2026, the adj EBITDA/revenue beats, revenue increasing sequentially across all geographies, management indicating activity headwinds are behind them. Management said NAM upstream land activity will continue to decline y/y. 2025 EBITDA guide midpoint was just below consensus while the revenue midpoint was inline.
    • WES (0.9%) restructured Delaware G&P contracts with OXY, moving towards more fixed fees rather than prior cost of service agreements. In exchange for the lower fees, the company is receiving 15.3M shares of OXY worth $610M.
    • OXY +3.3% announced Q4 earnings consideration with realized nat gas prices higher, NGL’s lower, while oil was inline. They also renegotiated contracts with WES. As part of the deal, Occidental will transfer 15.3 million common units worth about $610 million back to Western Midstream, which would reduce the company’s ownership to roughly 40%.
    • CVX +0.5% is in talks with Turkish Petroleum to jointly explore for oil and gas according to Bloomberg sources. Plans to finalize Singapore oil asset sales in 1Q26, according to Reuters sources, with a potential value of $1B.
    • SDRL +13.1% announced multiple contract awards. The UDW West Capella in Malaysia, the West Elara in Norway, and the West Carina’s in Brazil.
    • INR +6.9% acquired Chase Oil Corporation’s working interest in South Bend field in Pennsylvania for $36M in all-stock transaction.
    • APA +0.3% provided supplemental 4Q25 information including realized pricing, reorg expenses, and curtailed nat gas production.
    • HAL +5.7% reported Q4 results with initial market sentiment overall positive on the update. Positives highlighted include the strong Q4 EBITDA/revenue beat, C&P operating margins, the sequential increase in international revenue, returns-to-holders with buybacks inline, FCF/capex beat. On the call, management said NAM frac pricing is fairly stable, the market is at a bottom, and they expect improvement. Q1 C&P revenue was guided lower sequentially by (7%) to (9%) while D&E revenues were guided (2%) to (4%) lower. On Venezuela, the CEO was confident the company could quickly ramp up its business in that nation.
    • KMI +5.6% reported Q4 results after the close on Wednesday with initial market sentiment overall positive on the update. Positives highlighted included the EBITDA beat driven by strong natural gas pipeline segment results, the >$900M backlog increase to over $10B, MSX timeline update. 2026 adj EBITDA guidance was tweaked lower to account for sale of EagleHawk assets. Company annual business update is 5-February where the 2026 budget will be updated.
    • VG +11.8% disclosed that an international arbitrator had denied Repsol’s claims against them in their entirety and actually awarded fees to Venture Global Calcasieu Pass.
• Week Ahead:
  • Monday 26-January
    • SPR stockpile update
  • Tuesday 27-January
    • API stockpile data 16:30 ET
  • Wednesday 28-January
    • DOE WPSR 10:30 ET
    • EIA Electric Power Monthly
    • HH February contract expires
    • Earnings post-market LBRT, MUR
  • Thursday 29-January
    • EIA weekly nat gas storage data 10:30 ET
    • Earnings pre-market CNX, VLO
  • Friday 30-January
    • Baker Hughes weekly rig count 13:00 ET
    • EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly
    • EIA Natural Gas Monthly
    • Brent March, RBOB Feb, and ULSD Feb contracts all expire.
    • Earnings pre-market CVX, XOM
  • Sunday 1-February
    • OPEC-8 meeting to review market conditions