Energy
Oil & Gas
Pricing
Pre-Market (Feb 12):
- WTI crude (March) -0.3% to $64.42
- Brent crude (April) -0.5% to $69.08
- Natural gas (March) +3.8% to $3.276
- RBOB gasoline (March) -1.0% to $1.959
- ULSD diesel (March) -1.0% to $2.415
Prior Close (Feb 11):
- WTI +1.0% to $64.63
- Brent +0.8% to $69.37
- Natural gas +1.4% to $3.159
- RBOB +1.0% to $1.979
- ULSD +1.7% to $2.44
Oil
Crude oil finished higher on Wednesday, gaining between +0.8% and +1.0%, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fresh inventory data, and updates from major producer groups.
The latest U.S. petroleum report showed:
- Crude inventories +8.53 million barrels to 428.8M
- Gasoline +1.16 million barrels (13th straight weekly build)
- Distillates -2.70 million barrels
- U.S. crude production +498K bpd to 13.713M bpd
The large crude build was partly due to production rebounding after winter storm disruptions. Gasoline inventories are now at their highest level in over five years, while distillate inventories declined amid colder weather in parts of the country.
On the global front:
- OPEC left 2026 and 2027 demand forecasts unchanged, expecting global demand growth of +1.4M bpd in 2026 and +1.3M bpd in 2027.
- January OPEC production declined (135K) bpd to 28.453M bpd.
- Non-OPEC cooperating producers saw output fall (305K) bpd.
- OECD commercial inventories rose +6.5M barrels in December.
Geopolitical headlines involving U.S.-Iran tensions and continued disruptions in Russian infrastructure remain a key market focus. A slightly stronger U.S. dollar (around 96.9 on the Dollar Index) also influenced trading.
Natural Gas
Natural gas continues to trade firmly, rising +1.4% to $3.159 Wednesday and up +3.8% pre-market to $3.276 ahead of the latest storage report.
Consensus expects a storage draw of roughly (256–257) Bcf, compared to the five-year average draw of (146) Bcf.
- Working gas in storage: 2.463 Tcf, about 1.1% below the five-year average.
- Season-to-date withdrawals: 1.497 Tcf, running +15.3% above the five-year average.
Production has eased slightly below 108 Bcfd, while LNG feedgas flows remain near 18.8 Bcf/d. Weather forecasts call for above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. in the 6–14 day outlook, which could moderate demand expectations later in the month.
Services
Oilfield services names showed improving activity levels, Service stocks outperformed during the session, with several subgroups reaching multi-year highs.
Refiners
Refining companies posted stronger than-expected Q4 results:
Margins appear to be stabilizing, and early earnings commentary suggests constructive expectations for 2026. However, after a strong run in refining shares (approximately +25% recently), valuations are becoming more demanding.
Pipelines / Midstream
Midstream operators delivered steady results:
- Capital spending plans for 2026 are slightly elevated but remain manageable relative to cash flow.
Energy Equities Performance
On Wednesday:
- The broader market was roughly flat.
- The S&P 500 Energy Index +2.59%, significantly outperforming.
- The major energy sector fund rose +2.61% to record levels.
- Exploration & production-focused names gained +2.37%.
- Oil services indices rose +3.0% to +3.5%, reaching multi-year highs.
- Refining & marketing group +2.32%, near record levels.
- Midstream-focused fund +0.58%.
The rally was driven by stronger commodity prices, geopolitical risk premium, and generally supportive earnings results.
Metals & Mining
Synopsis
After a mixed equity session, precious metals strengthened on Wednesday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report (+130K vs +70K expected; unemployment 4.3% vs 4.4% expected). Investors continue to weigh economic resilience against interest rate expectations.
Futures point to a modestly higher equity open, while gold and silver are slightly lower pre-market as the dollar stabilizes.
Metals Snapshot
Post-Market (Feb 11):
- Gold +1.6% to $5,111.20/oz
- Monthly: +13.6%
- YTD: +17.7%
- Silver +4.9% to $84.29/oz
- Monthly: +6.3%
- YTD: +19.4%
- Copper +1.2% to $5.99/lb
- Monthly: +1.4%
- YTD: +5.4%
- Nickel -0.4% to $16,980/mt
- Zinc +0.5% to $3,342/mt
- Aluminum -0.7% to $3,063/mt
Pre-Market (Feb 12):
- Gold -0.3% to $5,084/oz
- Silver -1.5% to $82.75/oz
- Copper +0.3% to $5.99/lb
- Nickel +4.4% to $17,720/mt
- Zinc +2.8% to $3,437/mt
- Aluminum +1.1% to $3,098/mt
Mining equity funds gained strongly Wednesday:
- Senior miners +2.9% (Monthly +14.5%, YTD +23.6%)
- Junior miners +3.6% (Monthly +15.8%, YTD +24.1%)
Precious Metals
Gold and silver remain in strong uptrends for 2026, supported by:
- Continued global central bank and investor demand
- Active futures trading and seasonal buying
- Expectations that the silver market will remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year (projected 67M ounce deficit)
Drill results and project development updates across the sector were generally constructive, reinforcing strong sentiment in gold equities.
Base Metals
Copper remains near $5.99/lb, with investors constructive on medium-term demand. Surveyed investors see copper potentially in the $6.01–$6.50/lb range.
Nickel markets were volatile after reports Indonesia may reduce its 2026 production quota to 260–270 mt, sharply below 2025 levels. Zinc markets are expected to move into surplus in 2026 before tightening again in 2027–2028.
Bottom Line
Energy equities are outperforming as oil stabilizes in the mid-$60s and services/refining earnings surprise to the upside. However, rising U.S. inventories and strong gasoline builds are worth monitoring.
Meanwhile, precious metals remain one of the strongest-performing areas of the market year-to-date, with gold up +17% YTD and mining equities up more than +20% YTD, supported by supply constraints and steady global demand.
The next key catalysts: natural gas storage data, inflation reports, and ongoing geopolitical developments.
