Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, inflation concerns, and central bank policy expectations. Investors continue to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have created significant volatility across energy markets, while metals traded lower amid a stronger U.S. dollar and anticipation surrounding today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Energy supply concerns and declining global inventories remain supportive for oil prices, while industrial metals continue to benefit from long-term demand tied to infrastructure, electrification, and critical mineral supply chains.
Oil & Gas
Energy markets rebounded sharply in pre-market trading after overnight U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Comments from President Trump suggesting additional action against Iran could be forthcoming added further support to crude prices. Markets are also reacting to continued inventory draws, with commercial U.S. crude inventories having declined for six consecutive weeks and API data showing another substantial drawdown ahead of today’s official DOE petroleum report. Meanwhile, ongoing restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to tighten global supply expectations, supporting higher oil prices despite concerns that elevated energy costs could weigh on future demand.
Natural gas prices also moved higher, supported by warmer weather forecasts and expectations for continued strong summer power demand. While production growth remains robust, traders continue to monitor storage levels and export demand as key drivers heading into the second half of the year.
Metals & Mining
Precious metals came under pressure as investors weighed the implications of renewed geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and the possibility of additional Federal Reserve tightening. Gold and silver both declined as traders shifted focus toward today’s inflation report, which could provide further clues regarding the future path of interest rates.
Despite the near-term weakness in precious metals, the broader outlook for industrial and critical minerals remains constructive. The recent passage of the DOMINANCE Act by the U.S. House of Representatives highlights growing efforts to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources. Copper continues to outperform on a year-to-date basis, supported by electrification trends and ongoing infrastructure investment. Demand for critical minerals such as tungsten remains elevated as governments and manufacturers compete to secure long-term supply.
Today’s focus will be squarely on the U.S. CPI report, which could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and broader commodity markets. Energy markets remain driven by geopolitical risk and tightening inventories, while metals investors continue to balance inflation concerns against long-term structural demand trends. With volatility elevated and several key economic reports ahead, commodity markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both macroeconomic developments and geopolitical headlines in the days ahead.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (2.48)% to $4180.2/oz, Monthly (11.64)%, YTD (3.71)%:
- Silver (1.37)% to $64.345/oz, Monthly (20.43)%, YTD (8.86)%:
- Copper (1.25)% to $6.243/lb, Monthly (0.85)%, YTD +9.87%:
- Aluminum (1.68)% to $3608/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (2.24)% to $17930/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +1.62% to $3576/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $77.59, Monthly (17.97)%, YTD (9.54)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $99.54, Monthly (20.9)%, YTD (12.52)%:
- US Dollar +0.1% to $100.006, Monthly +2.15%, YTD +1.71%:
- CBOE Volatility Index +6.46% to $20.23, Monthly +5.28%, YTD +22.37%:
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI +2.1% to $90.05 (July)
- Brent +1.8% to $93.12 (Aug)
- Natural gas +3.1% to $3.236 (July)
- RBOB +1.0% to $3.051 (July)
- ULSD +1.4% to $3.591 (July)
