Commodities Daily Update

Commodity ETFs

Commodity ETFs generally moved lower during the session on Friday, although most broad-based funds retained solid gains over the past month. PDBC declined 0.4%, BCI fell 0.5%, HGER slipped 0.4% and DBC lost 0.2%; these funds remained up approximately 11%–13% over one month. Investor demand was constructive despite the pullback, with PDBC attracting $53.4 million, HGER adding $39.2 million and FTGC receiving $14.0 million. Materials and natural-resource equities also weakened, although XLB recorded a notable $76.3 million inflow. Agricultural products were mostly lower, led by a 2.3% decline in WEAT, while DBA and MOO fell 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. MOO nevertheless attracted $44.1 million in new assets.

Oil & Gas ETFs

Oil and gas ETFs produced mixed results. Energy equities declined broadly, with XLE and VDE both falling approximately 0.9%, XOP losing 0.8% and OIH declining 0.5%. Commodity-based energy products were firmer: gasoline fund UGA gained 1.5%, leveraged crude fund UCO rose 1.2%, natural-gas fund UNG added 0.7% and Brent-focused BNO advanced 0.4%. USO was nearly unchanged but remained up 6.2% for the week and 22.6% over one month. Flows varied considerably, with $83.8 million entering IEO and $70.8 million flowing into USO, while XOP and OIH experienced outflows of $77.0 million and $64.5 million, respectively. XLE also recorded a $61.4 million daily withdrawal, although it has attracted approximately $567 million over the past week.

Metals & Miners ETFs

Precious-metals ETFs declined, with GLD and IAU each falling approximately 0.8%, SLV losing 1.2% and the diversified GLTR basket declining 1.0%. Palladium was the weakest physical-metal product, falling 1.9%, while platinum was essentially unchanged. GLD recorded a sizable $204.8 million outflow, partially offset by inflows of $41.5 million into SLV and $29.4 million into IAU. Industrial-metal products were mixed: CPER gained 0.1% and the sustainable battery-metals fund ZSB rose 0.2%, while REMX, LIT and DBB declined between 0.2% and 0.5%. Mining equities generally underperformed the underlying metals. Gold and silver miners fell approximately 1.9%–2.5%, including declines of 2.2% for GDX and 2.5% for GDXJ, although both remained up more than 26% over the past month. Base-metal miners were mixed, with XME gaining 0.2% while COPX declined 0.6% and suffered a $69.4 million outflow. Uranium was comparatively resilient: URA advanced 0.8%, while URNM slipped 0.2%.

Overall Commodities

Commodities opened the week with a mixed but generally firm tone as geopolitical tensions supported energy prices while metals responded to inflation, trade and supply developments. Equity futures pointed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Dow off 0.8% in premarket trading, as investors continued to digest the August CPI report. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.7 in August from 99.8 in July, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.23% to 98.94. Trade tensions also intensified after Canada imposed $20 billion of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following the breakdown of negotiations in August. Against this backdrop, crude oil, refined products and most industrial metals advanced, while gold and nickel traded lower.

Oil & Gas

Energy prices moved sharply higher as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure renewed concerns about Middle East supply disruptions. WTI rose 2.6% to $93.90 per barrel, Brent gained 1.7% to $98.62 and ULSD advanced 2.8% to $4.665, while RBOB gasoline increased 1.4% to $3.261. Strait of Hormuz oil flows have reportedly fallen below 2 million barrels per day from 8–9 million before fighting intensified, although estimates vary depending on the inclusion of less-visible tanker traffic. Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery halted operations following a Houthi attack, while strikes also affected facilities in three other Saudi cities. OPEC-7 maintained its required September production levels for October, and China’s August crude imports rebounded 6.2% from July to approximately 8.93 million barrels per day, though they remained well below year-earlier levels. Chinese refiners are increasingly sourcing barrels from Africa, Canada and Latin America as disruptions limit Middle Eastern supplies. Natural gas gained 0.7% to $2.998 per MMBtu, supported by LNG feedgas demand near multimonth highs and forecasts for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. European TTF gas rose 2.4% as Qatari LNG vessels moved back toward the Persian Gulf, potentially preparing for renewed exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Oil & Gas Pricing:
  • WTI +2.6% to $93.90 (Oct)
  • Brent +1.7% to $98.62 (Nov)
  • Natural gas +0.7% to $2.998 (Oct)
  • RBOB +1.4% to $3.261 (Oct)
  • ULSD +2.8% to $4.665 (Oct)

Metals and Miners

Precious metals were mixed, with gold declining 0.59% to $4,450.20 per ounce while silver edged 0.17% higher to $66.86. Industrial metals were generally stronger: copper climbed 2.26% to $6.8335 per pound after reaching a record on the London Metal Exchange as traders continued building U.S. inventories ahead of a possible tariff announcement. Zinc rose 1.71% to $4,157 per metric ton and aluminum gained 0.53% to $3,310, while nickel declined 0.54% to $16,600. Gold-mining ETFs were unchanged in early trading but retained substantial monthly gains, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 27.4% and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF up 26.6% over the past month. Company developments were led by encouraging drilling results from Gold79’s Span Prospect and Luca Mining’s Tahuehueto mine, while Orvana Minerals produced its first doré bar from stockpiled material at the Don Mario operation. Dundee Precious Metals expanded its 2026 drilling program following promising copper-gold-silver results in Serbia. Among base-metal miners, Ivanhoe Mines reported a substantial updated copper resource in the Democratic Republic of Congo, IsoEnergy expanded drilling at its high-grade Hurricane uranium project, and Aclara Resources formed a joint venture with Japan’s JOGMEC to advance heavy rare-earth exploration in Brazil.

• Metals Pricing:
  • Gold (0.59)% to $4450.2/oz, Monthly +7.17%, YTD +2.51%:
  • Silver +0.17% to $66.86/oz, Monthly +10.98%, YTD (5.3)%:
  • Copper +2.26% to $6.8335/lb, Monthly +2.86%, YTD +20.27%:
  • Aluminum +0.53% to $3310/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Nickel (0.54)% to $16600/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Zinc +1.71% to $4157/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $99.26, Monthly +27.39%, YTD +15.73%:
  • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $129.03, Monthly +26.6%, YTD +13.4%:
  • US Dollar (0.23)% to $98.944, Monthly (0.92)%, YTD +0.63%:
  • CBOE Volatility Index +1.13% to $16.45, Monthly (8.85)%, YTD (0.5)%: