Commodities Daily Update

Commodity ETFs — General Overview

Commodity ETFs were mixed but generally constructive, with strength concentrated in materials equities, precious metals, mining companies and energy services. Diversified commodity funds were comparatively subdued: PDBC gained 0.1%, BCI rose 0.2%, DBC was unchanged and HGER slipped 0.1%. Despite the quiet daily performance, most broad commodity strategies remained up approximately 6%–11% over the past month. Materials-focused equity ETFs performed better, with XLB rising 1.7%, VAW gaining 1.7% and IYM advancing 1.4%. Fund flows were mixed, led by approximately $85.2 million into IYM and $40 million into HGER, while XLB and PDBC recorded outflows of $54.7 million and $12.4 million, respectively.

Oil & Gas

Oil and gas ETFs delivered mixed returns as energy equities and oil-services funds outperformed commodity-tracking products. OIH and XES gained 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively, while XLE, VDE and FENY rose approximately 0.4%–0.5%. Natural-gas exposure also strengthened, with UNG gaining 1.6% and leveraged BOIL rising 3.1%. Oil-tracking funds were relatively flat: USO gained 0.1%, BNO rose 0.3% and DBO advanced 0.1%, while UCO slipped 0.3%. Gasoline was the weakest energy product, with UGA declining 2.1%. Energy-sector flows were positive, led by $158.7 million into XLE and $48.2 million into XOP, but USO experienced a sizable $168.4 million outflow.

Metals

Physical precious-metals ETFs advanced broadly. Gold products GLD, IAU, AAAU and BAR gained approximately 1.5%, while silver funds SLV and SIVR rose about 2%. Palladium led the physical-metals category with PALL advancing 3.8%, while platinum gained roughly 1.1%. GLD attracted an unusually strong $1.40 billion in daily inflows, and AAAU added $55.8 million. Silver demand was less favorable, with SLV recording approximately $70.2 million in outflows despite its price gain. Industrial-metals performance was mixed: CPER rose 1.2%, DBB gained 0.7% and REMX edged up 0.1%, while lithium-focused LIT declined 0.6%. CPER and REMX experienced outflows of $5.9 million and $7.7 million, respectively.

Mining

Mining ETFs were among the market’s strongest performers. Precious-metals miners led the advance, with SLVP gaining 5.2%, GDXJ rising 4.7%, SIL advancing 4.7% and GDX increasing 3.1%. These funds maintained exceptional one-month returns of approximately 32%–36%, although weekly performance remained negative. Fund flows diverged from returns, as GDX lost $147.3 million and SIL experienced $17.1 million in outflows. Base-metals miners also advanced, led by XME at 3.2%, SETM at 1.5%, PICK at 1.2% and COPX at 0.7%. PICK attracted $12.8 million, while XME recorded $52.1 million in redemptions. Uranium ETFs participated more modestly, with URA gaining 0.9% and URNM rising 0.5%, although both remained sharply lower for the week and experienced combined daily outflows of approximately $11.5 million.

Commodities Overview

Commodity markets remained firm on September 3, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, stabilizing Treasury yields and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Precious metals extended their advance, while crude oil rose for a fourth consecutive session following new Iranian attacks and concerns about disruptions to regional energy infrastructure and shipping. Softer private-payroll data and more centrist Federal Reserve commentary also supported commodities by reducing expectations for a September rate increase. Investors are now focused on U.S. labor-market data, natural-gas inventories and the upcoming OPEC-7 meeting.

Oil & Gas

Oil prices extended their sharp rebound, with WTI gaining 2.1% to $92.95 per barrel and Brent rising 1.6% to $97.18, bringing their four-session advances to 10.4% and 10.5%, respectively. Brent reached its highest level in six weeks after Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in the UAE and Kuwait, while Israel warned that it could strike Iranian energy infrastructure in response to further attacks. Asian refiners also bid aggressively for Middle Eastern crude, pushing Dubai futures toward $100 per barrel and raising physical premiums for Oman and Murban grades. Prices were additionally supported by the previous session’s 4.45-million-barrel U.S. crude inventory draw and historically low East Coast distillate stocks, although Kazakhstan’s production recovery provided some offsetting supply relief.

Natural gas advanced 1.1% to $2.988 per MMBtu after gaining 1.8% in the previous session, supported by warmer weather forecasts and lower domestic production. The market awaited EIA storage data expected to show a 31-Bcf injection, below the five-year average build of 37 Bcf. U.S. inventories stood at 3.184 Tcf, approximately 5.5% above the seasonal average. European TTF natural gas declined 1.2% to €72.67 per MWh after reaching multiyear highs, although Morgan Stanley raised its winter forecast to €85.

• • Oil & Gas Pricing
    • WTI +2.1% to $92.95 (Oct)
    • Brent +1.6% to $97.18 (Nov)
    • Natural gas +1.1% to $2.988 (Oct)
    • RBOB +0.2% to $3.112 (Oct)
    • ULSD +0.3% to $4.697 (Oct)

Metals & Mining

Precious metals continued higher as the dollar weakened, with gold rising 1.6% to $4,484.70 per ounce and silver gaining 1.4% to $66.40. Gold was up 9.2% for the month, while silver had advanced nearly 15%. Mining equities were positioned for a stronger opening, led by Newmont, Barrick and Freeport-McMoRan, following sizable gains in gold-mining ETFs during the previous session. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF had advanced 3.1%, while the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF rose 4.7%.

Industrial metals were mixed. Copper gained 0.5% to $6.627 per pound and remained up 16.6% year to date, while nickel increased 1.1%. Aluminum slipped 0.2%, and zinc declined 2.8%. Corporate developments included environmental approval for Minera Alamos’ Cerro de Oro gold project, new exploration targets at Collective Mining’s Guayabales property and additional copper intersections from Faraday Copper’s Copper Creek drilling program. Overall, precious metals retained the strongest momentum, while industrial metals reflected more uneven supply-and-demand conditions.

• Metals Snapshot:
  • Gold +1.59% to $4484.7/oz, Monthly +9.2%, YTD +3.31%:
  • Silver +1.43% to $66.4/oz, Monthly +14.91%, YTD (5.95)%:
  • Copper +0.52% to $6.627/lb, Monthly +2.5%, YTD +16.63%:
  • Aluminum (0.17)% to $3255.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Nickel +1.1% to $16530/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Zinc (2.79)% to $4000/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $97.63, Monthly +31.75%, YTD +13.83%:
  • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $128.05, Monthly +34.24%, YTD +12.54%:
  • US Dollar (0.43)% to $99.169, Monthly (0.75)%, YTD +0.86%:
  • CBOE Volatility Index (0.32)% to $16.5, Monthly (8.86)%, YTD (0.2)%: