Commodities Daily Update

ETFs

Broad Commodities

Broad commodity ETFs finished mostly higher, supported by a strong rally in energy. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Trust gained 1.92%, the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund rose 1.66%, and PDBC advanced 1.41%. Investor demand was generally positive, led by $66.3 million of daily inflows into PDBC, $41.3 million into the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy Fund and $10.8 million into DBC. Materials equity funds moved in the opposite direction, with XLB declining 0.92%, VAW falling 0.90% and IYM losing 0.72%. Agricultural ETFs were mixed: MOO gained 1.16%, DBA rose 0.45% and corn added 0.55%, while wheat declined 0.68%. Overall, the session favored commodity-futures strategies with significant energy exposure over materials-related equities.

Oil & Gas

Oil and gas ETFs broadly rallied as crude prices advanced. The leveraged ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF led with a 4.77% gain, followed by USO at 3.08%, DBO at 2.95% and the Brent-focused BNO at 2.64%. Oil-services funds also performed well, with OIH rising 2.60% and XES gaining 2.06%, while exploration and production ETFs XOP and IEO advanced 1.62% and 1.48%, respectively. Broad energy-sector ETFs gained approximately 1.9% to 2.1%, including increases of 2.04% for XLE and VDE. Natural-gas products also strengthened, with UNG and leveraged BOIL both rising just over 2%, while the inverse KOLD fund fell 1.81%. Flows were mixed: USO attracted $51.9 million and UNG added $31.1 million, but XLE and XOP experienced outflows of $18.8 million and $18.6 million, respectively. Several energy ETFs now have RSI readings above 70, indicating that parts of the sector may be entering technically overbought territory after their recent gains.

Metals: Precious and Industrial

Precious-metals ETFs were generally weaker. Gold-backed funds GLD, IAU and AAAU declined approximately 0.1%, while the diversified GLTR basket fell 0.28%. Silver bullion was a modest exception, with SLV and SIVR each gaining about 0.2%, but silver-mining equities weakened: SIL declined 1.20% and SLVP lost 1.44%. Gold miners also underperformed bullion, with GDX down 1.14%, GDXJ off 0.68% and SGDM falling 1.27%. Platinum declined about 1.45%, while palladium was the largest metals loser, falling 3.92%. Despite the daily pullback, precious-metal miners retained substantial one-month gains, including 32.9% for GDX and 34.1% for GDXJ. Industrial-metal commodity funds were comparatively resilient: the copper-focused CPER gained 0.83%, DBB rose 0.51%, LIT added 0.39% and REMX edged up 0.13%. Mining equities, however, moved lower, with COPX falling 1.65%, PICK declining 0.85% and XME losing 0.51%. Flows favored diversified miners, as PICK attracted $42.6 million, while XME recorded a $23.7 million outflow.

Futures

Broad Commodities Overview

Commodity markets were mixed on September 1, with energy prices advancing sharply while most precious and industrial metals moved lower. Oil remained supported by escalating security risks around the Strait of Hormuz, including reports that two supertankers were struck and that tanker traffic through the waterway remained severely restricted. Metals faced pressure from rising global bond yields and a modestly stronger U.S. dollar, reducing demand for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Copper and zinc also weakened, although aluminum and nickel bucked the broader trend with modest gains.

Oil & Gas

Crude oil extended Monday’s rally, with WTI rising 2.1% to $87.55 per barrel and Brent gaining 1.8% to $92.08. Prices were driven by continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz, where only five vessels reportedly passed through on Monday—none of them tankers—compared with a 10-day average of 14. Additional support came from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, declining Russian gasoline production and preparations by Texas and Louisiana refineries for Tropical Storm Eduardo. Global supply flows were mixed: Venezuelan oil exports increased 28% in August to 1.114 million barrels per day, while Mexican crude exports fell 43% from July as Pemex directed more production toward domestic refineries. Refined-product markets were also firm, with ULSD gaining 2.1% and RBOB rising 0.7%. Natural gas declined 1.2% to $2.901 per MMBtu following Monday’s advance, despite warmer U.S. weather forecasts and the possibility of minor storm-related disruptions to Gulf Coast LNG operations. International gas markets remained considerably stronger, with European TTF prices reaching multiyear highs and Asian spot LNG climbing to a five-month high.

• Oil & Gas:
  • Pricing
    • WTI +2.1% to $87.55 (Oct)
    • Brent +1.8% to $92.08 (Nov)
    • Natural gas (1.2%) to $2.901 (Oct)
    • RBOB +0.7% to $3.097 (Oct)
    • ULSD +2.1% to $4.501 (Oct)

Precious and Industrial Metals

Precious metals retreated as rising sovereign-bond yields and a firmer dollar weighed on the sector. Gold declined 1.12% to $4,431.40 per ounce, while silver fell 2.23% to $65.495, extending the previous session’s modest losses. Despite the pullback, both metals retained substantial monthly gains, with gold up 7.9% and silver up 13.34%. Mining equities were positioned for a weaker opening, including declines in Newmont, Barrick and Freeport-McMoRan. Industrial metals were mixed: copper fell 1.32% to $6.599 per pound and zinc declined 0.9% to $4,070 per metric ton, reflecting macroeconomic pressure and softer risk sentiment. Aluminum rose 0.3% to $3,222 per metric ton, while nickel gained 1.14% to $16,850. Copper remained one of the stronger longer-term performers, retaining a 16.14% year-to-date gain despite the daily decline. Company-level exploration news remained constructive, with several gold and silver developers reporting encouraging drilling results and Aya Gold & Silver expanding its exploration holdings near the Zgounder mine in Morocco.

• Metals:
  • Pricing
  • Gold (1.12)% to $4431.4/oz, Monthly +7.9%, YTD +2.08%:
  • Silver (2.23)% to $65.495/oz, Monthly +13.34%, YTD (7.23)%:
  • Copper (1.32)% to $6.599/lb, Monthly +2.06%, YTD +16.14%:
  • Aluminum +0.3% to $3222/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Nickel +1.14% to $16850/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • Zinc (0.9)% to $4070/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $98.51, Monthly +32.94%, YTD +14.85%:
  • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $127.93, Monthly +34.11%, YTD +12.44%:
  • US Dollar +0.16% to $99.588, Monthly (0.33)%, YTD +1.29%:
  • CBOE Volatility Index +1.93% to $16.88, Monthly (6.76)%, YTD +2.1%: