Commodity markets opened the week with elevated volatility as investors weighed escalating Middle East tensions, evolving OPEC+ production decisions, and ongoing supply concerns across energy and metals markets. Crude oil initially surged on fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz before paring gains as reports suggested a potential easing of hostilities. Meanwhile, industrial metals benefited from improving risk sentiment and continued demand expectations from China, while precious metals faced pressure from inflation concerns and higher-rate expectations.
Oil & Gas
Energy markets remain focused on geopolitical developments. Crude oil moved higher as military exchanges between Israel and Iran raised concerns about global supply and shipping routes. While prices retreated from overnight highs following reports that Iran had concluded military operations, markets continue to price in elevated risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows.
Supporting prices were continued declines in U.S. crude inventories, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, where inventories are nearing historically low levels. OPEC+ announced its fourth consecutive monthly production increase, though meaningful voluntary cuts remain in place. Investors are also monitoring Russian infrastructure disruptions, declining Libyan exports, and growing Asian demand for signs of tighter global balances.
Natural gas moved lower as cooler Midwest weather forecasts reduced near-term demand expectations. Production remains strong and LNG exports elevated, while European storage levels remain below historical averages and China continues to increase LNG purchases ahead of summer.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets were mixed as investors balanced geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and Chinese demand trends. Copper continued to outperform, rising more than 12% year-to-date on expectations for infrastructure spending and resilient industrial demand. Chinese coking coal prices also reached their highest levels since 2024 following mining-related supply disruptions.
Gold traded near two-month lows as investors weighed persistent inflation and the potential for higher interest rates. However, central bank buying remains supportive, with China extending its gold-purchasing program for a nineteenth consecutive month. Silver also moved lower, while mining companies continued to announce project expansions, permitting milestones, and production updates.
Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, where any disruption to energy transportation routes could quickly impact commodity prices. At the same time, investors are watching inflation data, global growth trends, and upcoming reports from OPEC and the U.S. government. While energy markets continue to be driven by supply-side uncertainty, industrial metals—especially copper—remain supported by long-term themes including infrastructure investment, electrification, and global economic growth.
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI +0.8% to $91.19 (July)
- Brent +1.0% to $93.99 (Aug)
- Natural gas (3.0%) to $3.131 (July)
- RBOB +1.3% to $3.085 (July)
- ULSD +1.4% to $3.637 (July)
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (0.38)% to $4348.8/oz, Monthly (4.81)%, YTD +0.18%:
- Silver (1.11)% to $68.335/oz, Monthly (7.13)%, YTD (3.21)%:
- Copper +1.39% to $6.372/lb, Monthly +6.32%, YTD +12.14%:
- Aluminum (0.08)% to $3736/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel +0.93% to $18545/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +0.31% to $3575/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0.63% to $79.34, Monthly (8.12)%, YTD (8.08)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +1.53% to $102.13, Monthly (11.11)%, YTD (11.59)%:
- US Dollar (0.13)% to $99.935, Monthly +1.51%, YTD +1.64%:
- CBOE Volatility Index (5.06)% to $18.2, Monthly (7.98)%, YTD +10.09%:
