Commodity markets entered the final trading day of July with geopolitical risk, currency movements and corporate earnings continuing to drive performance. Oil prices remained elevated as shipping disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure kept supply concerns in focus. Metals were more mixed in early trading as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured gold and silver, although copper remained supported by tightening inventories and steady demand from China. The broader backdrop remains constructive for commodities, but daily moves continue to be heavily influenced by headlines and changing expectations for monetary policy.
Oil & Gas
Crude oil moved higher Friday morning after pulling back modestly in the prior session. WTI rose 1.6% to $84.88 per barrel, while Brent advanced 1.4% to $90.31. Prices remain supported by restrictions and disruptions affecting several key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandib and the Black Sea. Reports that Iran had stopped tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, reinforced concerns about the reliability of global energy supplies.
The market is also closely monitoring the CPC terminal in the Black Sea, which could suspend operations indefinitely without additional security guarantees. Elsewhere, tankers are increasingly rerouting around Africa to avoid conflict zones, adding transportation time and cost. Russia’s domestic fuel shortages have also become more visible, with the country extending restrictions on diesel exports and importing gasoline from Morocco.
Natural gas rose 0.5% to approximately $2.77 per MMBtu after gaining 1.3% Thursday. Prices were supported by a smaller-than-expected storage build, slightly lower production and forecasts for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. Higher temperatures generally increase electricity demand for air conditioning, which can boost natural gas consumption by power generators. U.S. inventories remain above their five-year average, however, which may limit the extent of further price gains.
Energy equities held up better than the underlying crude market Thursday. The exploration and production group gained 1.6%, while oil-services companies advanced more than 2%. Refiners were the strongest area after several companies reported better-than-expected quarterly results. PBF Energy rose 15.3%, CVR Energy gained 10.0% and Valero advanced 3.5%. Valero reported its most profitable quarter on record, supported by strong refining results and shareholder buybacks.
Oil-services companies also performed well. Cactus surged 18.0% following strong quarterly results and better-than-expected guidance, while DMC Global gained 15.5%. Patterson-UTI rose 5.6% after exceeding expectations and raising its outlook. Conversely, TechnipFMC fell 3.9% despite reporting results above expectations, as investors appeared to take profits following the stock’s recent gains.
The ETF data illustrates an important difference within the energy market. Exploration and production companies have benefited from elevated oil prices, while oil-services stocks are recovering from earlier weakness. Crude oil funds remain strongly positive for the month despite Thursday’s decline. Natural gas products continue to lag over longer periods because abundant inventories and high production have outweighed near-term weather-related demand.
Metals & Mining
Gold and silver traded lower Friday morning as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors reassessed the outlook for future Federal Reserve decisions. Gold fell 1.25% to $4,108.40 per ounce, while silver declined 1.86% to $57.92. Despite Friday’s weakness, gold remained positive for the month, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank buying and continued demand for defensive assets.
Copper held essentially flat at $6.477 per pound and remained on track for a monthly gain of approximately 3.6%. Falling inventories, supply concerns and steady Chinese demand continue to support the market. Copper supplies have also been redirected toward the United States ahead of potential import tariffs, contributing to reduced availability elsewhere. Longer term, copper remains closely tied to spending on electricity grids, data centers, renewable power and transportation infrastructure.
The precious-metals complex had rallied sharply Thursday. Gold gained 1.8%, silver rose 2.3%, and copper advanced nearly 3%. Gold-mining ETFs also moved higher, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF gaining 4.4% and the Junior Gold Miners ETF rising 4.3%. The rally was supported by a weaker dollar and slightly cooler-than-expected inflation data.
Mining companies continued to react to earnings, project updates and changes in commodity prices. Hecla Mining gained 5.5% after reporting encouraging drilling results at several properties. Fortuna Mining advanced 4.6% after approving a 30% expansion of its Séguéla gold mine, while Endeavour Mining rose 4.5% after reaffirming its full-year production outlook. Agnico Eagle gained 4.4% after reporting record quarterly free cash flow, and First Majestic Silver advanced 3.1% following improved earnings and margins.
The broader critical-minerals group also performed strongly. MP Materials rose 9.3%, Energy Fuels gained 9.0% and Teck Resources advanced 8.7%. These moves reflected growing investor interest in domestic and allied-country sources of rare earths, uranium and other strategically important materials.
On the downside, SunCoke Energy declined 9.7% after revising its outlook, while Champion Iron fell 7.5% as lower iron-ore sales offset increased production. Alamos Gold slipped 1.0% despite improved quarterly output, and Ivanhoe Mines declined 0.2% after narrowing its 2026 copper-production guidance.
ETF performance shows that mining equities generally moved more sharply than the underlying metals. Gold and silver funds posted solid daily gains, while mining ETFs gained more than 4% as investors responded to improving metal prices and company earnings. Uranium and lithium ETFs also rebounded strongly for the day, though both remain down over the past month, underscoring the volatility within critical-minerals investments.
Commodities finished July with several supportive long-term themes still intact. Oil markets remain vulnerable to supply disruptions as conflict affects major shipping routes, refineries and export terminals. That backdrop may keep crude prices elevated, although upcoming OPEC+ production decisions and changing geopolitical conditions could create significant short-term volatility.
Within metals, gold continues to serve as a defensive asset, but its daily performance remains sensitive to the U.S. dollar and expectations for interest rates. Copper appears better supported by tightening inventories and infrastructure-related demand, while uranium, lithium and rare-earth investments continue to benefit from efforts to secure critical-mineral supply chains.
For investors, the main takeaway is that commodity exposure remains highly diversified. Energy producers, oil-services companies, physical metals and mining equities can react very differently to the same market environment. Maintaining a balanced approach may therefore be more appropriate than relying on any single commodity or sector to deliver consistent returns.
