Commodities are mixed to begin the week, with precious metals and copper advancing while oil prices decline sharply following a pause in U.S.–Iran military strikes, reducing concerns about supply disruptions and supporting expectations that global oil production and exports will continue without significant interruption. Gold rose 0.66% to $4,097.70 per ounce, silver gained 0.75% to $59.35, and copper advanced 0.73% to $6.40 per pound, while aluminum and zinc declined and nickel was nearly unchanged. The pullback in crude may pressure oil-and-gas producers but could provide broader relief from energy-driven inflation ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Mining equities are outperforming the underlying metals, led by gains in gold and copper producers, even as investors monitor operational disruptions affecting global copper production.
Metals and mining equities are positioned for a stronger opening, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and Dow futures gaining 1.1%. Gold rose 0.66% to $4,097.70 per ounce, silver advanced 0.75% to $59.35, and copper climbed 0.73% to $6.40 per pound. Precious metals benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices following a pause in U.S.–Iran military strikes. Investors are also preparing for this week’s FOMC meeting, where the focus will be on the Fed’s policy outlook amid persistent inflation concerns. Mining ETFs outperformed the underlying metals, with GDX gaining 1.71% and GDXJ rising 2.16% in pre-market trading.
Copper remains one of the stronger metals, up 7.66% for the month and 12.71% year to date. Jefferies reported that second-quarter global copper production declined from the prior year but improved sequentially, with operational challenges at Freeport-McMoRan, Ivanhoe Mines, Antofagasta, BHP and Newmont contributing to the annual weakness. Lundin Mining said its Caserones mine remains without power following severe winter weather in Chile, with a gradual restart expected in two to three weeks. Candelaria has returned to full mining capacity. Panoro Minerals also expanded drilling at its Cotabambas copper-gold-silver project in Peru, targeting five active rigs by the end of the third quarter.
Among precious-metals companies, Fury Gold Mines resumed exploration at Eau Claire after a wildfire-related suspension, while Belo Sun reported the final dismissal of a legal action involving its Volta Grande gold project. Orogen Royalties highlighted approximately 44,000 meters of partner-funded drilling completed or underway across seven exploration projects. In Mexico, Axo Copper received a key environmental authorization allowing the San Antonio gold project to move toward construction and operation.
In analyst activity, UBS upgraded Cameco to Buy and raised its target to C$166, supporting the positive outlook for uranium equities. Goldman Sachs downgraded Vale to Neutral with a $16 target. UBS also maintained a modestly negative palladium outlook despite record Chinese imports during the first half of 2026, arguing that purchases were likely connected to the launch of futures trading in Guangzhou rather than stronger automotive demand. Pre-market leaders included Newmont, up 2.0%; Barrick Mining, up 1.6%; and Freeport-McMoRan, up 1.4%. The ALPS Nautilus SMR, Nuclear & Technology ETF (NYSE Arca: SMRF) gained approximately 2.4% for the week, outperforming the broader equity market as nuclear and advanced-reactor (SMR) stocks rebounded from recent lows. Investor sentiment was strengthened by reports of a landmark 30-year U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement and a new $200 million U.S. initiative involving Oklo, X-energy, Microsoft and Nvidia to accelerate advanced reactors designed to power AI data centers.
Oil prices declined sharply as reports that Pakistan and Iran are exploring renewed talks with the United States eased immediate fears of further supply disruptions. WTI fell 3.3%, Brent declined 4.3%, RBOB gasoline lost 3.2% and ultra-low-sulfur diesel dropped 3.5%. Despite the pullback, WTI and Brent remain up 8.9% and 9.4%, respectively, for the week as the conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt Gulf production and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. An estimated 11 million barrels per day of Gulf production remains shut in, while Kazakhstan has lost approximately 500,000 barrels per day following the closure of the CPC export terminal. Disruptions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb have also increased demand for U.S. crude cargoes and strengthened spot premiums for Russian and Middle Eastern grades. Meanwhile, U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all increased in the latest weekly report—the first simultaneous build since January.
U.S. natural gas fell 1.9% to $2.866 per MMBtu and finished the week down 1.7%. Dry-gas production remained strong, averaging approximately 110.8 Bcf per day over the past week, while LNG feedgas demand recovered to around 17.1 Bcf per day but remained below its June peak due partly to maintenance at Freeport LNG. The EIA reported a 32 Bcf storage injection, slightly above expectations, lifting inventories to 3.056 Tcf, or 6.4% above the five-year average. International gas markets remain considerably tighter, with European TTF prices up nearly 10% for the week and Asian spot LNG reaching a four-month high of $22 per MMBtu amid Middle East supply disruptions, stronger Asian demand and QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure.
Energy equities outperformed despite the daily decline in crude. The S&P 500 Energy Index gained 3.79%, XLE rose 3.46%, XOP advanced 2.60% and the Alerian MLP ETF added 2.26%. Exxon Mobil climbed 6.2%, ConocoPhillips gained 4.7% and SLB surged 11.1% following strong quarterly results and improved growth guidance. Other notable gainers included Ovintiv, Weatherford, EQT and Range Resources. Liberty Energy fell sharply after reporting weaker pressure-pumping results and raising concerns about spending in its power business, while refiners underperformed following their recent record highs.
