Commodity markets began the third quarter on a cautious note as investors paused following a strong second quarter for equities. Markets are turning their attention to a busy week of economic data, including the ADP employment report, ISM Manufacturing Index, and Friday’s closely watched U.S. jobs report, all of which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, commodity markets continue to balance easing geopolitical risks, resilient energy demand, and long-term supply constraints across key industrial metals.
Oil & Gas
Oil prices traded modestly lower Wednesday morning as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued in Qatar, easing concerns about further disruptions to global energy supplies. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has largely normalized, while production continues to recover across key Middle Eastern producers. Additional supply has also emerged from record exports in the UAE and rising production in Iraq and Kuwait, helping offset ongoing refinery disruptions in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Natural gas prices softened after Tuesday’s rally but remain well supported by forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. Heat advisories covering more than half the U.S. are expected to drive strong electricity demand, while LNG exports remain near multi-month highs. Investors will closely watch today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) petroleum report and Thursday’s natural gas storage data for further insight into supply and demand trends.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets were mixed to begin the new quarter as investors weighed a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for higher interest rates against favorable long-term supply fundamentals. Gold was little changed after a difficult June, while silver and copper declined modestly. Zinc stood out with solid gains, supported by continued optimism surrounding industrial demand despite broader market caution.
The long-term outlook for critical minerals remains constructive. Canada advanced another major gold development project, while Cameco temporarily suspended operations at its Cigar Lake uranium mine due to processing issues, highlighting the operational challenges that can tighten global supply. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Sangdong Mine began processing tungsten concentrate, underscoring ongoing investment in strategic minerals needed for electrification, advanced manufacturing, and national security initiatives.
As the third quarter gets underway, commodity markets remain focused on the interplay between macroeconomic policy, geopolitical developments, and supply fundamentals. While energy prices have stabilized as tensions in the Middle East ease, weather-driven demand continues to support natural gas. In metals, long-term structural demand for copper, uranium, lithium, and other critical minerals remains intact despite short-term volatility tied to interest rate expectations and currency movements. This week’s employment data and Federal Reserve commentary are likely to be the next major catalysts for commodity markets.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold +0.01% to $4038.9/oz, Monthly (12.06)%, YTD (6.96)%:
- Silver (0.98)% to $59.335/oz, Monthly (21.8)%, YTD (15.96)%:
- Copper (1.5)% to $6.1605/lb, Monthly (3.58)%, YTD +8.42%:
- Aluminum (1.74)% to $3105.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (1.09)% to $16275/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +2.13% to $3565.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $75.45, Monthly (15.69)%, YTD (12.03)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $98.25, Monthly (17.64)%, YTD (13.65)%:
- US Dollar +0.17% to $101.36, Monthly +2.48%, YTD +3.09%:
- CBOE Volatility Index +0.16% to $17.98, Monthly +2.23%, YTD +8.76%:
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI (0.7% to $69.02 (Aug)
- Brent (0.9% to $72.26 (Sept)
- Natural gas (1.6%) to $3.224 (Aug)
- RBOB +0.9% to $2.921 (Aug)
- ULSD +2.2% to $3.229 (Aug)
