Commodity markets began the final trading day of June with a cautiously optimistic tone as investors balanced easing geopolitical tensions with a busy slate of economic data due later this week. Energy prices remained supported following recent Middle East developments, while metals traded mixed as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on gold but industrial metals continued to benefit from expectations of long-term supply shortages. Investors remain focused on inflation, central bank policy, and upcoming economic releases that could shape commodity markets heading into the second half of 2026.
Oil & Gas
Oil prices held near recent highs after Monday’s rally, with crude markets continuing to monitor negotiations between the U.S. and Iran following last week’s military exchanges. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to normalize, although traders remain attentive to potential supply disruptions. At the same time, improving production in Kuwait and increased Asian crude exports have helped ease some supply concerns. Morgan Stanley also lowered its Brent crude price forecast, citing expectations for a meaningful global supply surplus in 2027.
Natural gas prices moved higher as forecasts for above-average temperatures across much of the United States boosted expectations for increased cooling demand. Weather models continue to point toward one of the strongest stretches of summer heat in several years, while LNG demand and storage data remain key areas of focus ahead of this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports.
Metals & Mining
Precious metals traded mixed Tuesday as gold recovered modestly after falling to its lowest level since November 2025 earlier in the session. A firmer U.S. dollar and persistent expectations for higher interest rates continued to pressure gold prices, while silver and copper posted gains. Industrial metals remain supported by favorable long-term supply-demand fundamentals, with UBS projecting continued shortages in both copper and aluminum over the medium term.
Policy developments also remained in focus. The European Commission introduced new quotas to limit duty-free steel imports while continuing efforts to restrict aluminum scrap exports to strengthen domestic production. Meanwhile, mining companies continued to report encouraging exploration and development updates across gold, lithium, uranium, and copper projects, highlighting ongoing investment in critical mineral supply needed to support electrification and global infrastructure demand.
As the second quarter comes to a close, commodity markets continue to reflect the balance between easing geopolitical risks and evolving macroeconomic conditions. Energy prices remain supported by ongoing developments in the Middle East and summer demand expectations, while industrial metals continue to benefit from favorable long-term supply fundamentals despite near-term pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations. Investors will be watching this week’s employment data, EIA inventory reports, and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for additional insight into the direction of commodity markets entering the third quarter.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold +0.22% to $4047.6/oz, Monthly (11.87)%, YTD (6.76)%:
- Silver +1.47% to $59.495/oz, Monthly (21.59)%, YTD (15.73)%:
- Copper +1.49% to $6.2555/lb, Monthly (2.09)%, YTD +10.09%:
- Aluminum (0.11)% to $3160.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (0.69)% to $16455/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +0.9% to $3491/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $75.68, Monthly (15.43)%, YTD (11.76)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $98.92, Monthly (17.08)%, YTD (13.06)%:
- US Dollar +0.26% to $101.369, Monthly +2.49%, YTD +3.1%:
- CBOE Volatility Index (0.08)% to $18.4, Monthly +4.61%, YTD +11.3%:
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI +0.2% to $70.89 (Aug)
- Brent (0.1%) to $73.08 (Aug)
- Natural gas +1.7% to $3.234 (Aug)
- RBOB (0.4%) to $3.050 (July)
- ULSD +0.8% to $3.358 (July)
