Commodity markets ended the week with investors balancing easing geopolitical tensions against ongoing supply concerns and expectations for future interest rate policy. Energy markets pulled back after recent volatility tied to developments in the Middle East, while metals traded mixed as gold stabilized and industrial metals continued to reflect long-term supply constraints despite near-term economic uncertainty. Investors also remained focused on upcoming economic data that could influence Federal Reserve policy and broader commodity demand.
Oil & Gas
Energy prices moved lower Friday morning as concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East eased somewhat. Crude oil retreated after Saudi Arabia resumed exports from its Ras Tanura terminal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regained access to Iran’s nuclear facilities, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improved. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated as Iran continues to warn that safe passage through the Strait cannot be guaranteed, while Russian diesel export restrictions, Kazakhstan production disruptions following a drone strike, and expanding Canadian wildfires continue to present potential supply risks.
Natural gas prices outperformed, supported by warmer weather forecasts heading into the July 4 holiday and storage injections that remain largely in line with historical averages. Investors will closely watch next week’s Baker Hughes rig count, EIA supply reports, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for additional direction.
Metals & Mining
Precious metals were mixed to end the week as gold posted modest gains but remained on pace for its fourth consecutive weekly decline amid persistent expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer. A softer U.S. dollar provided some support, while investors continued to monitor inflation and central bank policy for clues on future direction.
Industrial metals remained relatively resilient, with copper extending gains on optimism surrounding long-term supply shortages despite recent data showing a temporary global surplus in refined copper production. Meanwhile, governments continued efforts to strengthen critical mineral supply chains, with Canada and Japan announcing cooperation on strategic minerals such as graphite and gallium. In Europe, proposed restrictions on aluminum scrap exports were delayed until September, extending uncertainty for global aluminum markets.
Company-specific news remained constructive across the sector, highlighted by continued exploration success, mine development updates, and investments in domestic critical mineral production, underscoring the industry’s long-term focus on securing future supply.
As the second quarter draws to a close, commodity markets remain driven by a combination of geopolitical developments, central bank expectations, and evolving supply fundamentals. Energy prices continue to react to shifting Middle East headlines, while metals investors are balancing near-term economic uncertainty against favorable long-term demand trends tied to infrastructure investment, electrification, and critical minerals. Next week’s economic releases, OPEC+ meeting, and U.S. energy data will likely provide additional direction heading into the start of July.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold +0.44% to $4065.5/oz, Monthly (10.12)%, YTD (6.35)%:
- Silver (0.28)% to $58.2/oz, Monthly (23.62)%, YTD (17.57)%:
- Copper +0.55% to $6.1075/lb, Monthly (4.26)%, YTD +7.49%:
- Aluminum (0.57)% to $3132/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel +0.3% to $16660/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc (0.15)% to $3432/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0.86% to $76.32, Monthly (11)%, YTDc(11.78)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0.91% to $98.79, Monthly (12.29)%, YTD (13.96)%:
- US Dollar (0.2)% to $101.229, Monthly +2.01%, YTD +2.96%:
- CBOE Volatility Index +2.32% to $19.55, Monthly +0.09%, YTD +18.25%:
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI (2.7%) to $70.01 (Aug)
- Brent (2.9%) to $73.06 (Aug)
- Natural gas +1.6% to $3.396 (July)
- RBOB (1.8%) to $2.974 (July)
- ULSD (2.1%) to $3.230 (July)
