Commodity markets remain caught between competing macro forces: easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, a stronger U.S. dollar, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth. Energy prices continued to retreat as oil supplies normalized through the Strait of Hormuz, while precious metals faced pressure from rising interest rate expectations and dollar strength. Industrial metals remain supported by long-term themes such as electrification, AI infrastructure investment, and critical mineral supply security, although near-term demand concerns—particularly from China—continue to weigh on sentiment.
Oil & Gas
Energy markets moved lower as investors grew increasingly confident that major supply disruptions in the Middle East would be avoided. Crude oil prices fell for a second consecutive session as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated, Iranian exports resumed, and Gulf-region production recovered more quickly than expected. Meanwhile, natural gas prices weakened despite forecasts for above-normal summer temperatures across much of the United States.
Oil prices declined as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalize and Gulf-region exports recovered. According to shipping data, vessel transits through the strait have nearly tripled from levels seen earlier in the conflict period, helping ease concerns about potential supply shortages. Additionally, the International Energy Agency noted that UAE crude exports have recovered to approximately 85% of pre-conflict levels.
Natural gas prices also moved lower despite supportive weather forecasts. Investors remain focused on growing U.S. production levels and healthy storage inventories, which are offsetting expectations for stronger summer cooling demand. Longer-term fundamentals remain constructive, with LNG exports expected to reach record levels this summer.
Within equities, energy stocks outperformed the broader market. Integrated majors such as Exxon and Chevron finished higher, while exploration and production companies benefited from positive analyst commentary and several favorable drilling updates. Murphy Oil was among the strongest performers following an offshore discovery in Côte d’Ivoire.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets experienced broad weakness as a stronger U.S. dollar and persistent concerns about higher interest rates weighed on precious metals. Gold and silver both fell sharply, while copper retreated despite continued optimism around long-term demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrification, and energy transition investments.
Gold prices fell to their lowest levels in nearly two weeks as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors reassessed expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. The Dollar Index reached its highest level in more than a year, creating additional headwinds for precious metals.
Despite the near-term weakness, several analysts remain constructive on the sector. BMO reiterated its positive outlook for copper, citing accelerating power demand from AI-related infrastructure buildouts. The firm also expects gold prices to recover once interest-rate concerns ease and remains optimistic about the longer-term mining cycle due to ongoing industry capital discipline.
The broader mining sector also remains focused on resource security. China’s restrictions on certain critical mineral exports continue to raise concerns across global supply chains, reinforcing the strategic importance of domestic and allied-country mining projects. Recent exploration updates from gold, copper, and rare earth developers highlighted continued investment activity across North America, South America, Africa, and Australia.
Markets continue to transition from a period dominated by geopolitical risk toward one increasingly focused on macroeconomic fundamentals. In energy, the rapid normalization of Middle Eastern oil flows has removed a major source of upside pressure on crude prices. In metals, investors remain balancing near-term concerns surrounding higher interest rates and Chinese demand against powerful long-term themes including electrification, AI infrastructure growth, energy security, and critical mineral supply diversification.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor U.S. economic data, including GDP revisions, durable goods orders, inflation readings, and energy inventory reports, for further clues regarding the trajectory of economic growth, commodity demand, and Federal Reserve policy.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (2.05)% to $4064.3/oz, Monthly (10.15)%, YTD (6.38)%:
- Silver (3.35)% to $59.99/oz, Monthly (21.27)%, YTD (15.03)%:
- Copper (1.43)% to $6.06/lb, Monthly (5)%, YTD +6.65%:
- Aluminum (4.16)% to $3263.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (3.03)% to $17105/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc (3.03)% to $3503/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +0% to $77.66, Monthly (8.66)%, YTD (9.46)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +0% to $100.56, Monthly (9.91)%, YTD (11.62)%:
- US Dollar +0.23% to $101.646, Monthly +2.43%, YTD +3.38%:
- CBOE Volatility Index (1.31)% to $19.25, Monthly (1.45)%, YTD +16.44%:
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI (2.2%) to $71.62 (Aug)
- Brent (2.3%) to $75.34 (Aug)
- Natural gas +1.4% to $3.191 (July)
- RBOB (1.7%) to $2.910 (July)
- ULSD (0.5%) to $3.138 (July)
