Commodity markets continue to navigate a complex mix of central bank policy, geopolitical developments, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish outlook following this week’s FOMC meeting, while developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran agreement, global energy flows, and long-term demand trends for industrial metals continue to influence market sentiment. A stronger U.S. dollar has pressured precious metals, while energy markets are balancing near-term supply concerns against longer-term demand forecasts.
Oil & Gas
Energy markets softened modestly in pre-market trading after posting gains earlier in the week. Crude oil prices retreated as investors digested progress toward a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which has eased some concerns regarding potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize gradually, market participants remain cautious as shipping activity and production levels recover.
Recent inventory data continues to provide underlying support. U.S. crude stockpiles declined by 8.3 million barrels last week, marking the tenth consecutive weekly draw, while inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub fell to operationally critical levels. Refinery utilization rose to 96.7%, the highest level since August 2025, reflecting strong fuel demand and robust refining activity. However, the International Energy Agency lowered its 2026 global oil demand outlook and projects a meaningful supply surplus emerging in 2027 as additional production comes online.
Natural gas prices remain relatively stable ahead of today’s EIA storage report. Inventories remain above the five-year average, while expectations call for another healthy storage build. Weather forecasts for the eastern and midwestern United States have moderated somewhat, reducing near-term demand expectations.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets remain under pressure following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance. Gold and silver extended their declines as investors responded to expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer, strengthening the U.S. dollar and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Despite weakness in precious metals, the outlook for industrial metals remains constructive. Copper continues to benefit from favorable long-term fundamentals driven by electrification, infrastructure investment, and constrained mine supply. BNP Paribas Exane highlighted copper as one of its preferred commodities and identified major producers such as Freeport-McMoRan as attractive opportunities. Aluminum also remains supported by expectations for a prolonged period of tight supply and resilient demand.
The broader mining sector also received positive news from the lithium space after Albemarle Corporation received an upgrade from analysts at Citi. Meanwhile, several mining companies reported encouraging exploration and development updates across gold, copper, uranium, and rare earth projects, underscoring continued investment in critical mineral supply chains.
Markets are transitioning from a period dominated by geopolitical uncertainty toward one increasingly focused on monetary policy and economic fundamentals. Energy investors will be closely watching today’s natural gas storage report, ongoing developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran agreement, and upcoming OPEC outlook commentary. In metals, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar may continue to weigh on precious metals in the near term, but the long-term outlook for industrial metals such as copper remains supported by global electrification, infrastructure investment, and supply constraints. Overall, commodity markets remain volatile, but fundamental demand trends continue to provide support for select areas of the natural resources sector.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (2.7)% to $4263/oz, Monthly (6.55)%, YTD (1.8)%:
- Silver (5.34)% to $66.985/oz, Monthly (13.62)%, YTD (5.12)%:
- Copper (2)% to $6.3635/lb, Monthly +1.09%, YTD +11.99%:
- Aluminum +1.38% to $3405.5/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel +1.08% to $17820/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +1.18% to $3592/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (0.43)% to $84.00, Monthly (3.42)%, YTD (1.64)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (0.13)% to $109.65, Monthly (5.65)%, YTD (3.51)%:
- US Dollar +0.68% to $100.769, Monthly +1.5%, YTD +2.49%:
- CBOE Volatility Index (2.88)% to $18.7, Monthly (9.47)%, YTD +13.11%:
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI (1.8%) to $75.43 (July)
- Brent (1.2% +0.2% to $3.152 (July)
- Natural gas +0.2% to $3.150 (July)
- RBOB +0.1% to $2.913 (July)
- ULSD (2.5%) to $3.116 (July)
