Commodity markets remained sharply divided, with energy prices attempting to stabilize after a two-day selloff while precious and industrial metals extended their recent gains. Oil moved modestly higher as investors weighed the possibility of a U.S.-Iran agreement against renewed threats to Red Sea shipping. Gold and silver benefited from safe-haven demand and a softer U.S. dollar, while copper and other critical minerals remained supported by tight supply and long-term demand from infrastructure, defense and electrification.
Oil & Gas
Crude oil edged higher Wednesday morning after losing more than 10% over the previous two sessions. WTI gained 0.4% to $76.09 per barrel, while Brent rose 1.0% to $80.17. The modest recovery followed reports that Houthi forces had attacked a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, reminding investors that shipping risks remain elevated even as the United States and Iran discuss a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The possibility of a diplomatic deal remains the dominant short-term driver. President Trump described Tuesday’s talks with Iran as constructive and indicated that further clarity could emerge within 48 hours. Reports suggest that Iran may accept the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while seeking greater control over transit traffic, although important points remain unresolved. Shipping through the Strait and the Bab el-Mandeb remained broadly stable, while China temporarily relaxed refined-product export limits, potentially adding supply to global markets.
U.S. inventory data provided a mixed signal. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.69 million-barrel increase in crude inventories and a modest gasoline build, while distillate stocks declined by 1.2 million barrels. Cushing inventories also increased, although overall levels remain relatively low. The market is now focused on the Department of Energy’s official inventory report for confirmation of those trends.
Natural gas rose 0.4% to $2.693 per MMBtu after declining 3.6% Tuesday. Cooler weather forecasts for the Northeast and Great Lakes reduced expectations for electricity demand, while strong production continued to limit upside. European natural gas prices also declined as expectations for a possible Middle East agreement reduced concern over global LNG supply.
Energy ETFs remained under pressure following Tuesday’s sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices. The United States Oil Fund fell 5.2%, while the United States Brent Oil Fund declined 5.3%. Leveraged crude exposure also weakened, with the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF falling 5.7%. Exploration and production equities were more resilient but still declined, with XOP down 1.3% and the broad Energy Select Sector SPDR falling 0.5%.
Oil-services equities bucked the weakness. The SPDR Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF gained 3.1%, while the VanEck Oil Services ETF advanced 2.6%. Strong earnings from offshore and oilfield-service companies supported the group, including Tidewater, Innovex International and TETRA Technologies.
Corporate earnings remained broadly constructive. Devon Energy, EOG Resources and Talos Energy exceeded expectations and maintained or reaffirmed full-year guidance. Phillips 66, Par Pacific and Delek also reported strong refining results, reflecting healthy margins despite the sharp decline in crude prices. In the midstream sector, NGL Energy Partners and Delek Logistics reported better-than-expected earnings, while ONEOK announced a new equity-distribution agreement.
Metals & Mining
Metals continued to outperform energy as investors sought exposure to safe-haven and supply-constrained assets. Gold rose 2.0% to $4,234.70 per ounce, while silver gained 2.9% to $61.99. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar supported precious metals, while continued uncertainty surrounding Middle East negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path encouraged defensive positioning.
Copper was little changed at $6.644 per pound but remained up 7.7% for the month. Long-term fundamentals remain supportive as miners and manufacturers prepare for growing demand from power grids, data centers, defense equipment and electrification. Lockheed Martin was reportedly discussing supply arrangements for scandium and germanium, highlighting the strategic importance of less-common metals used in military and high-technology applications.
Iron ore also remains supported by long-term supply concerns. Rio Tinto estimates that approximately 800 million metric tons of new global capacity may be required over the next decade to replace aging mines and maintain supply. The company expects to invest more than $13 billion in its Australian operations between 2025 and 2027.
Nickel gained 2.0%, while aluminum edged higher and zinc declined modestly. The broad improvement across industrial metals helped lift mining equities, particularly copper, uranium, rare-earth and precious-metals producers.
Metals and mining ETFs posted broad gains. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF rose 0.7%, while the iShares Silver Trust advanced 2.6%. Mining equities delivered stronger returns, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF gaining 2.5%, the Junior Gold Miners ETF rising 3.3%, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF advancing 3.7%.
Industrial and critical-mineral funds were among the strongest performers. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF gained 5.8%, the Global X Copper Miners ETF rose 5.8%, and the Sprott Critical Materials ETF advanced 5.7%. Uranium funds also continued higher, with the Global X Uranium ETF gaining 4.1%. Platinum and palladium products surged more than 6%, reflecting renewed investor interest across the broader metals complex.
Company-specific news remained active. SSR Mining reported results consistent with its full-year production outlook, although costs were trending toward the upper end of guidance. Several gold developers announced encouraging drilling results and permitting progress. Commercial Metals outlined new financial targets and expanded its share-repurchase authorization, while Titan Mining announced a conditional agreement to advance graphite production trials.
Commodity markets continue to reflect two competing narratives. Energy prices are being pressured by expectations that a U.S.-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risk of a major supply disruption. However, attacks on shipping, Russian refinery disruptions and limited spare refining capacity mean that geopolitical risk has not disappeared.
Metals remain supported by a broader collection of drivers. Gold and silver are benefiting from safe-haven demand and a softer dollar, while copper, uranium, rare earths and other critical minerals are being supported by structural demand from electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, defense and resource-security initiatives.
For retail investors, the sharp difference between oil funds and mining equities illustrates why commodity exposure should not be treated as a single trade. Energy remains highly sensitive to diplomatic headlines, while metals are increasingly influenced by long-term supply constraints and strategic demand. Diversification across commodity groups may help reduce reliance on any one geopolitical or economic outcome.
