Commodity markets opened the week with a sharp divergence between energy and metals. Crude oil extended Monday’s selloff as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy reduced the immediate geopolitical risk premium, while gold, silver and copper moved higher amid continued uncertainty around interest rates, tight industrial-metal supplies and demand for defensive assets. The broader environment remains volatile, with markets balancing the possibility of reduced Middle East tensions against persistent supply disruptions, low inventories and strong structural demand for critical resources.
Oil & Gas
Crude oil remained under pressure after President Trump paused planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to allow additional time for negotiations. WTI fell another 0.7% to $79.80 per barrel Tuesday morning after declining 5.1% Monday, while Brent slipped 0.1% to $83.65 after losing 4.7% in the prior session. Reports that Qatar was working on language for a possible U.S.-Iran agreement added to expectations that an immediate escalation may be avoided.
Supply risks have not disappeared, however. A cargo vessel was reportedly struck near Oman, while threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb continue. Russia’s seaborne petroleum-product exports also fell sharply in July following attacks on refineries and tighter export restrictions. At the same time, Saudi Aramco warned that the global refining system is operating near maximum utilization, leaving limited capacity to absorb further disruptions. Visible global crude inventories have reportedly declined substantially in recent weeks, suggesting the market could tighten quickly if diplomatic efforts fail.
Natural gas declined 1.7% to $2.733 per MMBtu despite forecasts for above-normal temperatures across most of the United States. Strong domestic production and expectations for another storage build continued to limit prices. European gas moved higher, however, as regional inventories remained historically low for this point in the season.
Energy ETFs reflected Monday’s sharp decline in crude prices. The United States Oil Fund fell 5.5%, while the United States Brent Oil Fund declined 5.1%. Leveraged crude exposure posted even larger losses, with the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF dropping 6.6%. Exploration and production equities were comparatively more resilient but still moved lower, with XOP declining 1.8% and the broad Energy Select Sector SPDR falling 1.3%. Natural-gas ETFs were modestly positive as the United States Natural Gas Fund gained 0.5% and BOIL advanced 0.8%.Corporate results were generally constructive despite the weaker commodity backdrop. Diamondback Energy exceeded expectations, raised production guidance and doubled its share-repurchase authorization to $16 billion. Crescent Energy also beat earnings estimates and increased the low end of its production outlook, while ONEOK raised full-year guidance. Marathon Petroleum reported results well above expectations, supported by strong refining profitability. These updates suggest that many energy companies remain operationally healthy even as oil prices react sharply to geopolitical headlines.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets moved higher as investors balanced geopolitical uncertainty with questions surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next move. Gold gained 1.1% to $4,136 per ounce, while silver rose 3.2% to $59.69. Copper advanced nearly 2% to $6.67 per pound and extended its monthly gain to more than 8%, supported by tight supplies, infrastructure demand and continued concern over future availability.
Precious metals benefited from ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Markets were pricing a meaningful probability of a September rate increase, which may remain a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold. Nevertheless, central-bank demand, geopolitical risk and investor demand for portfolio protection continue to offer support.
Industrial metals also remained constructive. Copper’s strength reflects demand tied to electrical grids, artificial intelligence infrastructure and transportation, while governments continue prioritizing domestic supplies of uranium, nickel, rare earths and other critical materials. Canada’s potential to expand uranium exports and Mexico’s expected rebound in mining investment reinforced the long-term strategic importance of the sector.
Mining equities outperformed the underlying metals during Monday’s session. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF gained 2.6%, while the Junior Gold Miners ETF rose 3.4%. Silver-mining and critical-materials funds also advanced, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF gaining 2.8%, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF rising 2.5%, and uranium ETFs climbing more than 4%.
Copper-related investments remained particularly strong. The United States Copper Index Fund advanced modestly for the day and gained 6.3% over the past month, while the Global X Copper Miners ETF rose 0.6% and held a one-month gain of 3.5%. Lithium and battery-related equities were also positive for the day but remained lower over the past month, reflecting continued volatility in that segment.
Company news continued to highlight the importance of future supply development. IsoEnergy announced a transaction intended to create a new U.S.-focused uranium company, while Talon Metals reported high-grade nickel, copper and cobalt drilling results from Minnesota. Fresnillo reported lower first-half gold and silver production, while several gold developers announced encouraging drilling results and construction progress.
Commodity markets remain caught between easing geopolitical fears and persistent physical-market tightness. Oil prices have fallen sharply as investors price in the possibility of progress between the United States and Iran, but shipping risks, refinery disruptions and low crude inventories suggest that the geopolitical premium could return quickly if negotiations fail.
Metals present a different picture. Gold and silver continue to respond to interest-rate expectations and safe-haven demand, while copper, uranium and critical minerals remain supported by longer-term supply constraints and growing infrastructure needs. The contrast between falling oil prices and rising metals reinforces the value of viewing commodities as a collection of distinct markets rather than a single asset class.
