Commodity markets traded cautiously ahead of this morning’s closely watched U.S. employment report, which investors hope will provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates during the second half of the year. Energy prices remained under pressure as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to ease, while metals markets reflected a mixed picture, with precious metals softening ahead of the jobs data and industrial metals continuing to benefit from favorable long-term supply fundamentals.
Oil & Gas
Oil prices declined for a third consecutive session as diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up exports from its recently reopened Ras Tanura terminal, while additional supply from Iraq, Kuwait, and Brazil has further eased market concerns. Expectations are also building that OPEC+ could announce another production increase at this weekend’s meeting, adding to the softer near-term outlook for crude prices.
Natural gas also traded lower ahead of today’s storage report despite forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. While strong summer heat continues to support electricity demand, storage inventories remain comfortably above historical averages, tempering bullish sentiment. Investors will be watching today’s EIA storage report and this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting for additional direction heading into the holiday weekend.
Metals & Mining
Metals markets were mixed as investors positioned ahead of the June U.S. employment report. Gold and silver edged slightly lower as traders weighed the potential impact of labor market data on future Federal Reserve policy. The World Gold Council noted that gold could resume its upward trend if economic conditions weaken or expectations shift toward lower interest rates, while warning that sustained prices below $4,000 per ounce could trigger additional selling.
Industrial metals also traded lower, although the longer-term outlook remains constructive. Iron ore briefly climbed above $100 per metric ton following reports of supply disruptions in China, while ongoing investment activity across copper and uranium projects highlights continued confidence in demand driven by electrification, infrastructure spending, and the energy transition. Recent corporate developments—including Faraday Copper’s acquisition of BHP’s San Manuel property and Denison Mines securing Indigenous support for its Wheeler River uranium project—underscore the sector’s strategic importance despite near-term market volatility.
As markets head into the Independence Day holiday, investors remain focused on two key themes: the direction of U.S. monetary policy and the evolving global energy landscape. Today’s employment report, combined with this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, could provide important catalysts for commodity markets. While easing geopolitical tensions have weighed on oil prices in the near term, long-term demand for critical minerals and industrial metals continues to support the broader investment outlook as global infrastructure, electrification, and energy transition initiatives remain firmly in place.
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (0.01)% to $4082.1/oz, Monthly (9.41)%, YTD (5.97)%:
- Silver (0.11)% to $60.445/oz, Monthly (19.68)%, YTD (14.39)%:
- Copper (0.54)% to $6.146/lb, Monthly (6.2)%, YTD +8.17%:
- Aluminum (0.98)% to $3075/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (0.61)% to $16175/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc (1.02)% to $3529/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF +1.84% to $76.45, Monthly (13.39)%, YTD (12.48)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF +1.94% to $99.95, Monthly (14.7)%, YTD (13.82)%:
- US Dollar (0.29)% to $101.103, Monthly +1.92%, YTD +2.83%:
- CBOE Volatility Index +0.26% to $18.15, Monthly +0.44%, YTD +9.78%:
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI (2.0%) to $67.24 (Aug)
- Brent (1.6%) to $70.40 (Sept)
- Natural gas (1.9%) to $3.160 (Aug)
- RBOB (2.0%) to $2.885 (Aug)
- ULSD (0.9%) to $3.189 (Aug)
