Commodity markets opened the new week with a cautious tone as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against improving global supply conditions and a busy week of upcoming economic data. Energy prices moved modestly higher following weekend military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, while metals traded mixed as gold pulled back and industrial metals continued to reflect resilient long-term demand. Investors remain focused on geopolitical developments, inflation expectations, and key economic releases that could shape commodity markets heading into the second half of the year.
Oil & Gas
Oil prices edged higher Monday morning as markets responded to renewed military activity involving the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. Although both countries have agreed to halt hostilities and resume diplomatic discussions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, traders continue to price in a modest geopolitical risk premium. Encouragingly, crude exports from the Middle East have largely continued uninterrupted, with Saudi Arabia resuming loadings from its Ras Tanura export terminal and regional production recovering toward pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices have continued to decline, providing some relief for consumers despite ongoing global uncertainty.
Natural gas prices moved lower after recent gains as ample supply and healthy storage levels offset expectations for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. Investors will continue monitoring this week’s EIA petroleum and natural gas reports, along with Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, for additional clues on supply trends and market direction.
Metals & Mining
Precious metals began the week under pressure as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver both declined, while copper eased slightly after a strong recent run. In contrast, aluminum and zinc posted gains as investors remained optimistic about long-term industrial demand, particularly as governments continue investing in critical mineral supply chains.
Policy developments also remained in focus. China is preparing to launch its first sulfur futures contracts later this year to improve domestic pricing power, while the European Union is considering a 15% levy on aluminum scrap exports to retain more material within the region. At the company level, several mining firms reported encouraging production updates and exploration results across uranium, copper, iron ore, and critical minerals, reinforcing the sector’s favorable long-term outlook.
Commodity markets continue to navigate the competing forces of geopolitical uncertainty, resilient global energy supplies, and evolving inflation expectations. While oil remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East, steady production and export activity have helped limit price volatility. Meanwhile, industrial metals continue to benefit from long-term structural demand tied to infrastructure investment, electrification, and critical mineral development. Investors will be watching this week’s economic data, energy inventory reports, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for additional direction as markets enter the second half of 2026.
Energy Pre-Market
Oil & Gas:
- Pricing
- WTI +0.9% to $69.88 (Aug)
- Brent +0.6% to $72.45 (Aug)
- Natural gas (1.3%) to $3.24 (Aug)
- RBOB +1.0% to $2.99 (July)
- ULSD +0.9% to $3.24 (July)
Metals Snapshot:
- Gold (1.13)% to $4050.1/oz, Monthly (10.04)%, YTD (6.7)%:
- Silver (2.27)% to $57.88/oz, Monthly (24.44)%, YTD (18.02)%:
- Copper (0.32)% to $6.187/lb, Monthly (3.28)%, YTD +8.89%:
- Aluminum +1.02% to $3164/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Nickel (0.54)% to $16570/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- Zinc +0.82% to $3460/mt, Monthly +0%, YTD +0%:
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (0.84)% to $76.35, Monthly (12.99)%, YTD (10.23)%:
- VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (1.09)% to $99.20, Monthly (14.03)%, YTD (11.86)%:
- US Dollar (0.08)% to $101.275, Monthly +2.12%, YTD +3%:
- CBOE Volatility Index (1.99)% to $18.68, Monthly (1.01)%, YTD +12.99%:
