March 3, 2026
Energy Update
Oil & Gas
Pricing
| Commodity | Price | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|
| WTI (Apr) | $76.20 | +7.0% |
| Brent (May) | $82.95 | +6.8% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $3.092 | +4.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline (Apr) | $2.494 | +5.2% |
| ULSD Diesel (Apr) | $3.292 | +13.5% |
Oil prices are surging as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. Iran has attacked energy infrastructure and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping lane for global crude exports. Tanker traffic has slowed dramatically, storage facilities have been hit, and refinery disruptions are tightening supply. Diesel (ULSD) continues to outperform after jumping more than 11% Monday, reflecting refinery outages and product stockpile attacks.
Natural gas is also climbing as QatarEnergy has shut in LNG production following attempted attacks. Europe’s benchmark TTF gas price has spiked sharply, and several Asian countries are scrambling to secure replacement supply. Markets are watching U.S. inventory data closely this week for additional supply signals.
E&P / Majors
Corporate news was active. VTS announced a $35M acquisition in the Powder River Basin alongside Q4 results and 2026 production guidance. CRGY launched a $400M convertible note offering. EQNR was downgraded to Neutral. Capital markets activity suggests companies are preparing for elevated volatility and potential supply disruptions.
Services
Service companies showed mixed earnings results. TDW beat EBITDA and free cash flow expectations and raised 2026 revenue guidance, reflecting strong offshore activity. CVEO reported a small earnings miss but stable outlook. FTK secured its first utilities infrastructure contract, diversifying beyond traditional energy exposure.
Refiners
Refiners continue to benefit from widening crack spreads (refining margins). On Monday, the S&P 1500 Refining & Marketing Index gained over 5%, led by strong moves in PBF, DINO, and MPC. Elevated product prices — especially diesel — are driving margin expansion.
Pipelines / LNG / MLPs
VNOM priced a large secondary offering raising nearly $800M, while also buying back shares. Leadership changes were announced at CAPL. MLPs have been relatively stable despite volatility in crude, with the Alerian MLP ETF recently up 1.2%.
Metals & Mining Update
Equity futures are pointing lower this morning as investors digest rising inflation risks tied to oil’s spike. Gold and silver are pulling back pre-market due to a stronger U.S. dollar, though safe-haven demand remains elevated. Thermal coal prices jumped sharply after outages at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex increased expectations of fuel switching. Lithium prices in China fell on weaker EV demand.
Metals Snapshot (Pre-Market)
| Metal / Index | Price | Daily Move | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,217.60 | -1.8% | +5.7% | +20.2% |
| Silver | $82.79 | -6.7% | -0.5% | +17.4% |
| Copper | $5.83/lb | -2.0% | -4.3% | +2.6% |
| Nickel | $17,335/mt | -2.0% | +0.9% | +5.2% |
| Zinc | $3,354/mt | +0.8% | +1.9% | +9.5% |
| Aluminum | $3,226/mt | +2.2% | +4.0% | +8.7% |
| GDX | $109.07 | -5.4% | +17.4% | +34.5% |
| GDXJ | $146.36 | -5.6% | +19.4% | +36.3% |
| DXY | 99.14 | +0.8% | +1.7% | +0.8% |
| VIX | 25.19 | +17.5% | +19.1% | +43.4% |
Gold remains strongly positive year-to-date despite short-term volatility. Copper is softening amid concerns about global growth and weaker Chinese demand. The spike in the VIX suggests investors are pricing in continued market turbulence.
Precious & Base Metals Commentary
Gold rallied Monday on safe-haven demand following military escalation but is pulling back today as the dollar strengthens. Analysts continue to highlight geopolitical instability and inflation as supportive longer-term drivers.
Copper production updates were mixed, while rare earth demand is projected to grow steadily through 2030, supporting long-term structural themes in electrification and energy transition.
What Investors Are Watching
Energy:
- API and DOE inventory data
- EIA natural gas storage
- Saudi Aramco pricing decisions
- Rig count trends
Macro & Metals:
- Eurozone CPI
- U.S. ADP employment and ISM services
- Federal Reserve Beige Book
Bottom Line
Energy markets are being driven almost entirely by geopolitical risk and supply disruption concerns. Oil and diesel prices are reacting to threats to shipping routes and refinery infrastructure, while natural gas is surging due to LNG shutdowns.
Metals markets are balancing safe-haven demand (supportive for gold) against dollar strength and growth concerns (weighing on copper and lithium).
Volatility is elevated, and while energy equities are benefiting in the short term, broader markets are beginning to price in inflation risk and potential economic slowdown if disruptions persist.
