Energy
Oil & Gas – Pricing Snapshot
| Commodity | Last Close (2/26) | Current Pre-Mkt (2/27) | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (Apr) | $65.21 | $67.03 | +2.8% |
| Brent (Apr) | $70.75 | $72.54 | +2.6% |
| Natural Gas (Apr) | $2.827 | $2.873 | +1.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline (Mar) | $2.032 | $2.058 | +1.2% |
| ULSD Diesel (Mar) | $2.613 | $2.660 | +1.8% |
Crude oil is rebounding sharply this morning after a volatile Thursday session driven by headlines surrounding U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Initial optimism about progress pushed prices lower yesterday, but renewed geopolitical tensions — including evacuation advisories and uncertainty around potential military action — are lifting prices again. Traders are balancing diplomatic developments with supply signals.
On the supply side, Saudi exports are reportedly up ~400K barrels per day month-over-month, while Iranian exports have also risen. Meanwhile, tanker rates have climbed to multi-year highs due to shifting trade flows and longer shipping routes. Reports suggest OPEC-8 may raise production quotas modestly at Sunday’s meeting, though many traders believe actual supply increases could remain limited. Investors will also watch updated December U.S. production and demand data from the EIA today.
Natural gas is modestly higher this morning after closing down 1.4% Thursday on warmer weather forecasts and a lighter-than-normal storage draw. The EIA reported a 52 Bcf withdrawal last week versus a 168 Bcf five-year average, reducing the seasonal supply deficit. Weather remains the dominant short-term driver as the market heads into the final stretch of winter draw season.
Energy equities held up relatively well Thursday despite commodity volatility. The S&P 500 Energy Index gained 0.26% compared to a 0.54% decline in the broader S&P 500. Refiners outperformed, while oilfield services lagged.
E&P
Earnings season remains active. Coterra reported solid production but slightly lighter-than-expected free cash flow, while Range Resources raised its dividend by 11%. Investors continue to reward disciplined capital spending, modest production growth, and shareholder returns.
Services
Select service names saw mixed reactions to earnings. Flowco and Kodiak Gas Services moved higher on strong EBITDA results, while others declined on softer forward guidance. Activity expectations for 2026 remain stable but not accelerating.
Refiners
Delek posted stronger-than-expected Q4 results and guided 2026 EBITDA in line with expectations. Refining stocks were among Thursday’s strongest performers as crack spreads remain supportive.
Pipelines / LNG / MLPs
Venture Global signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement with Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace, highlighting continued long-term demand visibility for U.S. LNG exporters. Midstream results have generally shown stable cash flow and solid distributable cash coverage.
On Deck (Energy)
- Friday: Baker Hughes rig count; EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly; Natural Gas Monthly
- Sunday: OPEC-8 production meeting
- Next Week: API/DOE inventory data, SPR update, and multiple earnings releases
Metals & Mining
Metals Snapshot
| Metal | Last Close (2/26) | Current Pre-Mkt (2/27) | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,216.60 | $5,201.50 | +2.3% | +19.8% |
| Silver | $89.46 | $90.25 | (14.8%) | +27.9% |
| Copper | $6.03/lb | $6.12/lb | +4.5% | +7.8% |
| Nickel | $17,750/mt | $17,480/mt | (4.7%) | +6.0% |
| Zinc | $3,352/mt | $3,342/mt | +1.5% | +9.1% |
| Aluminum | $3,107/mt | $3,121/mt | (1.4%) | +5.2% |
Gold is modestly higher this morning and remains on track for a seventh consecutive monthly gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty. The metal is up nearly 20% year-to-date, reflecting both risk hedging and central bank buying trends.
Silver is rebounding sharply today after recent weakness tied to inventory adjustments on major exchanges. Copper is also higher following reports that UBS now expects a deeper supply deficit in 2026 and projects materially higher prices over the next year. Meanwhile, China’s lithium prices jumped after Zimbabwe suspended raw lithium exports, raising supply concerns for battery markets.
Base metals remain more mixed. The World Steel Association reported January global crude steel production fell 6.5% year-over-year, led by weakness in China. However, supply disruptions and structural demand themes (EVs, renewables, electrification) continue to support longer-term pricing expectations.
Precious Metals
Quarterly earnings from producers highlighted higher realized gold prices but also rising costs in select projects. Capital spending plans suggest steady production growth in 2026, particularly among mid-tier operators.
Base Metals
Zinc and copper producers reported solid full-year EBITDA supported by pricing and currency effects. Uranium production guidance remains constructive, with companies increasing processing targets for 2026 amid supportive nuclear demand trends.
On Deck (Metals & Mining)
Key upcoming data points include U.S. PPI, ISM Manufacturing, Eurozone CPI, and China PMI readings — all important indicators for industrial metal demand expectations.
Bottom Line for Investors
Energy markets remain headline-driven, with geopolitics and OPEC policy dominating near-term price action. Oil is volatile but supported by risk premiums and stable demand data. Natural gas is increasingly weather-sensitive as winter winds down.
Metals markets continue to reflect a bifurcation: precious metals are benefiting from safe-haven demand and structural deficits, while industrial metals are balancing softer global manufacturing data against long-term electrification trends.
For diversified investors, both sectors remain highly tactical in the short term but supported by constructive medium-term fundamentals.
