Metals & Mining:
Markets began the week on a softer note, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing lower Monday before signaling a mixed open Tuesday. Investor focus remains squarely on geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, evolving U.S. tariff policy, and shifting rate cut expectations.
Gold rallied sharply to start the week on safe-haven demand following an increase in global tariffs and continued geopolitical uncertainty. However, futures are modestly lower in early trading today as markets digest the recent surge and monitor U.S. dollar movements. Analysts remain constructive on the broader gold backdrop, citing dollar softness, lower real rates, and steady central bank demand.
In industrial metals, copper traded modestly lower Monday but is rebounding in early trade, while nickel and zinc remain firm on tighter supply dynamics. BMO highlighted ongoing tightness in the tungsten market amid low global inventories and another projected deficit in 2026.
On the supply front, U.S. steel imports declined 13% year-over-year in 2025 to 22.93 million tons, signaling softer domestic inflows. In lithium, the SQM-Codelco joint venture exceeded 2025 production expectations and is targeting roughly 30% output growth toward 300,000 metric tons LCE by decade-end.
The gold equity complex outperformed meaningfully Monday, with both senior and junior miner ETFs advancing strongly. Individual names were active on permitting updates, financing announcements, leadership transitions, and updated production guidance.
Metals Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Daily Move | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,253.50/oz | +3.4% | +5.5% | +21.0% |
| Silver | $88.43/oz | +7.4% | (12.7%) | +25.3% |
| Copper | $5.80/lb | (0.7%) | (2.5%) | +2.1% |
| Nickel | $17,155/mt | +1.3% | (7.9%) | +4.1% |
| Zinc | $3,309/mt | +0.5% | +2.7% | +8.0% |
| Aluminum | $3,053/mt | +0.9% | (3.8%) | +2.9% |
| GDX | $110.30 | +3.8% | +3.1% | +28.6% |
| GDXJ | $146.67 | +3.3% | +1.1% | +28.9% |
| DXY | 97.70 | (0.1%) | +0.1% | (0.6%) |
| VIX | 21.01 | +10.1% | +18.6% | +27.7% |
Energy:
Oil & Gas
Crude benchmarks eased to start the week after reaching six-month closing highs Friday, as traders weigh geopolitical risks against diplomatic developments. A third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is scheduled for Thursday, while reports of military advisories urging caution have tempered earlier price spikes.
WTI and Brent are modestly higher in early Tuesday trade after Monday’s pullback. Shipping rates from the Middle East to China have surged to multi-year highs, reflecting heightened regional tensions and strong export flows. Meanwhile, North Dakota December production declined month-over-month, and U.S. SPR inventories were unchanged last week.
In Europe, geopolitical risk intensified after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a key Russian pipeline pumping station tied to Druzhba flows. EU nations remain divided on additional Russian sanctions.
Natural gas prices have weakened, with the March contract approaching expiration. Warmer weather models and below-average storage draw expectations (consensus ~50 Bcf vs. 5-year average 168 Bcf) continue to pressure prices. Season-to-date draws remain 18.5% above the five-year average.
Commodities Snapshot
| Commodity | Last Price | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|
| WTI (Apr) | $66.31 | (0.3%) |
| Brent (Apr) | $71.49 | (0.4%) |
| Natural Gas (Mar) | $2.985 | (2.0%) |
| RBOB (Mar) | $1.989 | (0.4%) |
| ULSD (Mar) | $2.68 | +3.6% |
On Deck
Tuesday (Feb 24)
- US FHFA House Price Index (09:00 ET)
- US Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
- API crude inventory data (16:30 ET)
Wednesday (Feb 25)
- DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30 ET)
- Germany GDP (y/y)
- Eurozone CPI (y/y)
Later This Week
- EIA natural gas storage
- Baker Hughes rig count
- OPEC-8 meeting (March 1) on April production policy
Bottom Line
Precious metals remain the standout performers year-to-date, supported by geopolitical risk, tariff developments, and expectations for lower rates. Industrial metals are more mixed, balancing supply discipline against growth concerns.
In energy, crude prices continue to trade within a geopolitically sensitive range, while natural gas remains under seasonal pressure. Equity markets are navigating crosscurrents between resilient commodity pricing and elevated volatility, with stock selection and capital discipline increasingly driving performance dispersion.
