Energy & Metals
ENERGY
Energy Pre-Market – February 18
• Oil & Gas
| Commodity | Contract | Price | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | Mar | $64.11 | +2.9% |
| Brent Crude | Apr | $69.30 | +2.7% |
| Natural Gas | Mar | $2.969 | -2.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline | Mar | $1.956 | +2.2% |
| ULSD Diesel | Mar | $2.457 | +2.8% |
Crude is rebounding sharply after Tuesday’s selloff, with WTI back above $64 and Brent approaching $70. The move higher follows renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and ongoing Russia-Ukraine energy disruptions. Markets are recalibrating supply risk premiums amid refinery outages, naval drills in key shipping lanes, and shifting European pipeline logistics.
The March WTI contract expires February 20, adding some near-term volatility. Inventory data will be closely watched with API results due after the close and the DOE petroleum report tomorrow.
Natural gas is extending losses, down 2% this morning after a 6.5% drop yesterday. Warmer U.S. weather forecasts continue to weigh on demand expectations, though European gas prices are modestly higher and storage remains below historical averages.
• E&P
Upstream earnings were broadly constructive. Several producers reported Q4 results ahead of expectations, with strong production volumes and solid free cash flow generation. One company announced a $3.0B asset sale in the Anadarko basin to streamline operations and enhance shareholder returns.
Capital discipline remains a clear theme. Multiple operators reaffirmed dividends, outlined 2026 production growth targets, and emphasized debt reduction alongside opportunistic buybacks. Weather-related guidance trims appear modest and temporary.
• Services
Oilfield service results were mixed but showed improving fundamentals. Select companies posted EBITDA beats and stronger free cash flow, while backlog visibility improved in offshore drilling. Some firms are increasing 2026 capital spending, suggesting confidence in activity levels.
Overall, service names remain more sensitive to commodity swings but are demonstrating better cost control and balance sheet improvement.
• Refiners
One major refiner delivered Q4 earnings well above expectations, driven by stronger margins and EBITDA. However, the company announced it will delay its 10-K filing due to an internal review of disclosure processes. It also unveiled a new retail fuels joint venture in the Rocky Mountain region and noted a leadership transition.
Refining fundamentals appear stable, though company-specific developments may drive volatility.
• On Deck
Key catalysts this week include:
- API crude data
- EIA natural gas storage
- DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Ongoing earnings releases
METALS & MINING
Metals & Mining Pre-Market – February 18
| Metal / Index | Price | Daily Move | Monthly | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,946.70/oz | +0.8% | +7.7% | +14.0% |
| Silver | $75.54/oz | +2.7% | -14.7% | +7.0% |
| Copper | $5.71/lb | +1.1% | -2.1% | +0.4% |
| Nickel | $16,665/mt | -0.6% | -5.4% | +1.1% |
| Zinc | $3,250/mt | -0.2% | +1.5% | +6.1% |
| Aluminum | $3,014/mt | -0.8% | -4.2% | +1.5% |
| GDX | $101.44 | +1.2% | +3.1% | +16.9% |
| GDXJ | $132.99 | +1.7% | +2.1% | +15.0% |
| DXY | 97.18 | +0.1% | -2.2% | -1.1% |
| VIX | 20.34 | +0.2% | +27.9% | +35.7% |
Gold and silver are rebounding ahead of the FOMC minutes release as investors reassess the policy path and geopolitical backdrop. Copper is modestly higher despite elevated global inventories, while nickel and aluminum remain under pressure.
Uranium commentary suggests steady production growth, though longer-term expansion may face delays tied to permitting and geopolitical factors.
• Precious Metals
Quarterly earnings and reserve updates dominated headlines. Several producers reported strong cash flow and expanding reserve inventories, with some highlighting record exploration budgets for 2026. High-grade drill results across multiple projects underscore ongoing resource expansion and development momentum.
• Base Metals
Copper and polymetallic producers reported solid production updates and long-life project economics. However, rising global exchange inventories are tempering short-term copper sentiment.
Bottom Line
Energy markets remain driven by geopolitical headlines and near-term inventory data, while natural gas continues to trade primarily on weather dynamics. In metals, gold’s longer-term uptrend remains intact despite short-term volatility, while copper faces near-term inventory headwinds.
Investors should expect continued cross-currents from geopolitics, central bank messaging, and commodity supply-demand data into month-end.
