Energy
Oil & Gas: Crude is mixed to start the holiday-shortened week, with WTI +1.0% to $63.55 (Mar) and Brent (0.2%) to $68.50 (Apr), while the Dollar Index is up +0.3% to ~97.25. Geopolitics remain front and center, including renewed U.S.–Iran talks, military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure tensions. Natural gas is weaker, down (4.7%) to $3.092 (Mar), as updated NOAA forecasts call for milder temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. European TTF gas is down (6.2%) to €30.49/MWh, with storage at 34.0% capacity, well below the five-year average. Refined products are firmer, with RBOB +0.7% to $1.925 and ULSD +1.7% to $2.429.
Services: Earnings were mixed across energy services. One compression-focused name reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $154.5M (vs. $155.1M expected) and guided FY2026 EBITDA to $770–800M. A Middle East-focused services firm topped expectations with Q4 EPS of $0.32 (vs. $0.25 est.) on $398.3M in revenue. Select offshore and well services providers saw rating changes and strategic updates ahead of a busy earnings slate this week.
Integrated/Majors: Analyst activity was active, with one large-cap E&P downgraded on valuation concerns and a major integrated name upgraded to buy, with a higher $205 price target, reflecting improving sentiment toward cash flow and capital discipline.
Pipelines/MLPs: Results were mixed. A large midstream operator reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $4.18B (vs. $4.22B est.) and raised FY2026 EBITDA guidance to $17.45–17.85B. Another fuel distributor posted Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $646M (vs. $684M est.) but beat on distributable cash flow at $442M.
On Deck: Key catalysts this week include the SPR update, API and EIA inventory data, natural gas storage figures, and a heavy earnings calendar across upstream, midstream, and services names.
Metals & Mining
Synopsis: Futures are pointing lower, with the S&P 500 (0.4%) and Dow (0.2%) in pre-market trading, while volatility is rising, with the VIX +6.9% to $22.03. A stronger dollar (+0.3% to 97.25) is pressuring precious metals, and rising exchange inventories are weighing on copper and nickel sentiment amid lighter Lunar New Year trading.
Metals Snapshot: Gold is down (1.8%) to $4,954.50/oz (Monthly +7.8%, YTD +14.2%), while silver is off (4.2%) to $74.63/oz (YTD +5.7%). Copper falls (2.2%) to $5.68/lb (YTD (0.1%)), and nickel slips (0.3%) to $16,760/mt. Zinc is down (1.2%) to $3,256/mt, while aluminum bucks the trend, up +1.4% to $3,037.50/mt. Gold miner ETFs are also lower, with the senior miner ETF (3.2%) to $100.57 (YTD +21.2%) and the junior miner ETF (2.7%) to $132.65 (YTD +19.8%).
Precious Metals: A leading streaming company reported FY2025 production of ~692K GEOs, above guidance, and sees FY2026 output rising to 860K–940K GEOs. Several junior explorers announced new drill results, resource updates, and strategic land acquisitions, highlighting continued exploration activity despite recent price volatility.
Base Metals: A diversified miner released a PEA outlining 400K tonnes of annual copper production and a $9.5B after-tax NPV (8%) using $4.60/lb copper assumptions. Another major producer reported FY2025 EBITDA of $5.20B on $8.62B in revenue, with 2026 copper production guided to 650K–700K tonnes.
On Deck: Investors will watch U.S. retail sales, housing data, durable goods, and FOMC Minutes this week, alongside global inflation data, for signals on growth, rates, and dollar direction that could drive the next move in commodities.
